Sporting KC vs. Houston Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Sporting KC vs. Houston MLS match on September 26, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
MLS
FINAL
MLS sport icon
MLS
Sporting KC
2
0
Shell Energy Stadium
Houston
Shell Energy Stadium
HoustonHOU
Score Summary
Sporting KCSKC
H. Herrera (45')
Red Card icon
Andre Luiz (27')
Soccer ball icon
C. Harris (45')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Houston
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Sporting KC
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: D. McGuire replaces M. Bogusz
  2. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: Z. Bassong replaces S. Afrifa
  3. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: S. Reid replaces T. Calheira
  4. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Bartlett replaces J. Reynolds
  5. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: O. Wolff replaces C. Harris
  6. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: M. Saracchi replaces L. Ennali
  7. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: L. Foster replaces I. Aliyu
  8. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: M. Arana replaces A. Bouzat
  9. 68'
    Yellow Card
    S. Afrifa (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  10. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: R. Ramos replaces Andre Luiz
  11. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: Felipe Andrade replaces F. Negri
  12. 54'
    Yellow Card
    Antonio Carlos (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
  13. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by C. Harris, assisted by Andre Luiz
    2-0
  14. 45'
    Red Card
    H. Herrera (Houston Dynamo) sent off with a straight red card
  15. 45'
    Yellow Card
    T. Calheira (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  16. 45'
    Yellow Card
    Andre Luiz (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  17. 27'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by Andre Luiz, assisted by S. Afrifa
    1-0
  18. 1'
    Yellow Card
    J. Reynolds (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned

Sporting KC vs. Houston: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Sporting KC vs. Houston
  • Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Shell Energy Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Sporting KC +450, Houston 60¢, draw 22¢
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (60¢/39¢)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Sporting KC: 17.6%
  • Houston: 61.7%
  • Draw: 20.8%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Sporting KC 0-2 Houston (10.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Sporting KC vs. Houston? Prediction & correct score

Houston is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 61.7%.

The most likely correct score is Sporting KC 0-2 Houston.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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