Sporting KC vs. Austin Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Sporting KC vs. Austin MLS match on May 16, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
MLS
FINAL
MLS sport icon
MLS
Sporting KC
2
1
Q2 Stadium
Austin
Q2 Stadium
AustinAUS
Score Summary
Sporting KCSKC
M. Desler (45')
Soccer ball icon
M. Garcia (80')
Soccer ball icon
S. Afrifa (82')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Austin
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Sporting KC
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 86'
    Yellow Card
    C. Fodrey (Austin FC) cautioned
  2. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Austin FC: C. Fodrey replaces M. Desler
  3. 82'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by S. Afrifa
    2-1
  4. 80'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by M. Garcia, assisted by S. Suleymanov
    1-1
  5. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: S. Afrifa replaces T. Calheira
  6. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Austin FC: B. Vazquez replaces F. Torres
  7. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Austin FC: M. Djordjevic replaces I. Sanchez
  8. 71'
    Yellow Card
    J. Nelson (Austin FC) cautioned
  9. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: M. Garcia replaces Z. Bassong
  10. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Reynolds replaces J. Davis
  11. 63'
    Yellow Card
    Z. Bassong (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  12. 61'
    Yellow Card
    I. Sanchez (Austin FC) cautioned
  13. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Austin FC: J. Gallagher replaces O. Wolff
  14. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Austin FC: J. Nelson replaces C. Ramirez
  15. 57'
    Yellow Card
    O. Svatok (Austin FC) cautioned
  16. 47'
    Yellow Card
    J. Davis (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  17. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: S. Suleymanov replaces Capita
  18. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Austin FC by M. Desler
    0-1
  19. 28'
    Yellow Card
    Capita (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned

Sporting KC vs. Austin: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Sporting KC vs. Austin
  • Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Q2 Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Sporting KC +470, Austin -175, draw +350
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-250/+188)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Sporting KC: 16.4%
  • Austin: 64.3%
  • Draw: 19.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Sporting KC 1-2 Austin (9.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Sporting KC vs. Austin? Prediction & correct score

Austin is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 64.3%.

The most likely correct score is Sporting KC 1-2 Austin.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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