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Read Article New York City vs. Toronto FC prediction, odds, MLS picks [7/31/2026]
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Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get New York City vs Toronto FC predictions for MLS Friday.
NY City and Toronto will meet in MLS action at Yankee Stadium on Friday, with kickoff at 7:30 PM ET.
Dimers' proven MLS model projects NY City as the most likely winner in this NY City vs. Toronto prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
New York City vs. Toronto FC prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's MLS game between NY City and Toronto, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently indicates a 61.8% chance of NY City winning, a 17.7% chance for Toronto, and a 20.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 59.8% chance of going over, according to our model.
New York City vs. Toronto FC odds
We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| NY City | Toronto | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -138 | +400 | +310 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -157 | +135 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
New York City vs. Toronto FC picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: NY City @ -138 via Bet365
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -157 via DraftKings
According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is NY City to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
New York City vs. Toronto FC: Correct score predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 NY City win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| NYC 2-1 TFC | 9.9% |
| NYC 2-0 TFC | 9.8% |
| NYC 1-1 TFC | 9.6% |
New York City vs. Toronto FC game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between NY City and Toronto in MLS at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: New York City vs. Toronto FC
- Date: Friday, July 31, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Yankee Stadium
Conclusion
According to our computer model, NY City has a 61.8% win probability on Friday, Toronto has a 17.7% win probability, and there is a 20.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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