Chicago Fire vs. Orlando City prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [10/28/2026]

Chicago and Orlando will meet in the MLS Cup first round at Soldier Field on Wednesday, starting at 8:30 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced MLS model projects Chicago as the most likely winner in this Chicago vs. Orlando prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Chicago Fire vs. Orlando City prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLS matchup between Chicago and Orlando, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model indicates a 61.7% chance of Chicago winning, a 20.4% chance for Orlando, and a 17.9% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 77.8% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Orlando +426, Chicago -178
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-388/+365)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Orlando @ +426 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +365 via Novig

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Orlando to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Chicago win being the most probable:

• Chicago 2-1 Orlando (8.4% probability)
• Chicago 3-1 Orlando (7.3%)
• Chicago 1-1 Orlando (6.4%)

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's MLS action between Chicago and Orlando in MLS at Soldier Field is scheduled to commence at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Fire vs. Orlando City
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT
• Venue: Soldier Field

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Chicago has a 61.7% win probability on Wednesday, Orlando has a 20.4% win probability, and there is a 17.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.