FC Dallas vs. Columbus Crew prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [10/28/2026]

MLS Cup action continues on Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET as Columbus takes on Dallas in the first round at Toyota Stadium.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Dallas as the most likely winner in this Dallas vs. Columbus prediction.

This article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

FC Dallas vs. Columbus Crew prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLS matchup between Dallas and Columbus, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently suggests a 50.0% chance of Dallas winning, a 27.7% chance for Columbus, and a 22.2% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 64.0% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Columbus +225, Dallas +127
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-178/+170)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Dallas @ +127 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -178 via Polymarket

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dallas to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Dallas 1-1 Columbus (9.8% probability)
• Dallas 2-1 Columbus (9.4%)
• Dallas 1-0 Columbus (7.1%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's MLS matchup between Dallas and Columbus in MLS at Toyota Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: FC Dallas vs. Columbus Crew
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT
• Venue: Toyota Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Dallas has a 50.0% win probability on Wednesday, Columbus has a 27.7% win probability, and there is a 22.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.