Atlanta United vs. New York City prediction, odds, MLS picks [9/26/2026]

Atlanta and NY City will meet in MLS action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday, with kickoff at 7:30 PM ET.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Atlanta as the most likely winner in this Atlanta vs. NY City prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Atlanta United vs. New York City prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLS matchup between Atlanta and NY City, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model indicates a 41.4% chance of Atlanta winning, a 33.3% chance for NY City, and a 25.3% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 52.7% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: NY City +203, Atlanta +138
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-144/+138)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: NY City @ +203 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +138 via Polymarket

According to our best MLS bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Atlanta 1-1 NY City (11.9% probability)
• Atlanta 1-0 NY City (9.1%)
• Atlanta 2-1 NY City (8.8%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's MLS matchup between Atlanta and NY City in MLS at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta United vs. New York City
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Atlanta has a 41.4% win probability on Saturday, NY City has a 33.3% win probability, and there is a 25.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.