Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Astros vs. Red Sox MLB game on May 2, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Astros
Spencer Arrighetti 3-0, 2.00 ERA
6
3
Fenway Park
Red Sox
Connelly Early 2-1, 2.84 ERA
Fenway Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Astros
1 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 6 12 0
Red Sox
0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 3 8 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Astros
    100%
  • Red Sox
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Wilyer Abreu grounds out to shortstop, Braden Shewmake to Isaac Paredes.
Quick Box Score
Astros Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 C. Correa SS4121011.5001.100
2 Y. Alvarez DH4000011.0000.200
3 I. Paredes 1B4010010.2500.900
4 B. Shewmake 3B0000000.0000.000
5 J. Altuve 2B5110001.2000.600
6 Y. Diaz C5000001.0000.000
7 B. Matthews CF3123111.6672.417
8 C. Smith RF4110001.2500.750
9 D. Harris LF4020001.5001.000
Red Sox Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Duran DH4010011.2500.650
2 W. Contreras 1B4111000.2500.450
3 R. Anthony LF3110021.3330.933
4 W. Abreu RF3021020.6671.467
5 T. Story SS4011001.2500.500
6 I. Kiner-Falefa 2B0000000.0000.000
7 C. Rafaela CF4010002.2500.500
8 C. Wong C4110001.2500.500
9 C. Durbin 3B3000010.0000.250

Astros vs. Red Sox: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Astros vs. Red Sox
  • Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026
  • Time: 4:10 PM ET
  • Venue: Fenway Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Red Sox favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 9.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Astros 44¢, Red Sox 56¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Astros: 45%
  • Red Sox: 55%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Astros a win probability of 45%, while the Red Sox have a win probability of 55%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Red Sox are more likely to beat the Astros in the MLB game at Fenway Park on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Astros vs. Red Sox predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.