Guardians vs. Red Sox: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Guardians vs. Red Sox MLB game on Tuesday, September 22, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Guardians
Parker Messick 12-9, 2.57 ERA
3
2
Fenway Park
Red Sox
Payton Tolle 9-6, 3.02 ERA
Fenway Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Guardians
0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 12 0
Red Sox
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 8 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Guardians
    100%
  • Red Sox
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Nick Sogard grounds out to second base to Angel Genao.
Quick Box Score
Guardians Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 S. Kwan LF4010012.2500.650
2 J. Ramírez 3B5010001.2000.400
3 C. DeLauter RF4120000.5001.350
4 J. Adell DH4010011.2500.650
5 N. Lowe 1B0001000.0000.000
6 P. Halpin CF10100001.0002.000
7 A. Genao 2B1000000.0000.000
8 A. Hedges C3000021.0000.400
9 B. Rocchio SS5010001.2000.400
Red Sox Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 R. Anthony LF5000002.0000.000
2 N. Sogard 1B5020002.4001.000
3 M. Gasper DH11111001.0005.000
4 W. Abreu RF4010001.2500.750
5 A. Rutschman C4130000.7502.000
6 C. Durbin 3B2000011.0000.333
7 A. Monasterio 2B3001012.0000.250
8 I. Kiner-Falefa SS3000012.0000.250
9 J. Duran PH0000010.0001.000

Guardians vs. Red Sox: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Tuesday

  • Teams: Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox
  • Date: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
  • Time: 6:45PM ET
  • Venue: Fenway Park

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Guardians (+1.5, -203), Red Sox (-1.5, +194)
  • Moneyline: Guardians +111, Red Sox -113
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5 runs (+117/-120)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Guardians: 45.0%
  • Red Sox: 55.0%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Guardians a win probability of 45.0%, while the Red Sox have a win probability of 55.0%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Red Sox are more likely to beat the Guardians in the MLB game at Fenway Park on Tuesday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Guardians vs. Red Sox predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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