Pirates vs. Marlins: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Pirates vs. Marlins MLB game on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Pirates
Paul Skenes 9-10, 3.96 ERA
0
2
loanDepot park
Marlins
Eury Pérez 5-9, 3.61 ERA
loanDepot park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Pirates
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2
Marlins
0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 X 2 5 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Pirates
    0%
  • Marlins
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Spencer Horwitz grounds out to first base to Graham Pauley.
Quick Box Score
Pirates Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Mangum CF4000003.0000.000
2 B. Lowe 2B3000012.0000.250
3 B. Reynolds LF4000001.0000.000
4 S. Horwitz 1B4000001.0000.000
5 N. Gonzales 3B3000001.0000.000
6 R. Simon DH2010011.5001.167
7 E. Valdez RF3010000.3330.666
8 J. Gonzalez SS3010000.3330.666
9 H. Davis C3010001.3330.666
Marlins Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 X. Edwards 2B4010001.2500.500
2 O. Lopez SS4010000.2500.500
3 G. Pauley 1B0000000.0000.000
4 H. Hernández LF4000003.0000.000
5 J. Marsee CF2000010.0000.333
6 J. Sanoja 3B3010001.3330.666
7 O. Caissie DH3000002.0000.000
8 J. Mack C3000001.0000.000
9 E. Ruiz RF2211101.5002.667

Pirates vs. Marlins: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Tuesday

  • Teams: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
  • Date: Tuesday, August 11, 2026
  • Time: 6:40PM ET
  • Venue: loanDepot park

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Pirates (-1.5, +167), Marlins (+1.5, -170)
  • Moneyline: Pirates -102, Marlins +103
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5 runs (+133/-138)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Pirates: 52.8%
  • Marlins: 47.2%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Pirates a win probability of 52.8%, while the Marlins have a win probability of 47.2%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Pirates are more likely to beat the Marlins in the MLB game at loanDepot park on Tuesday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Pirates vs. Marlins predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.