Phillies vs. D-Backs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Phillies vs. D-Backs MLB game on September 20, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Phillies
Aaron Nola 4-9, 6.44 ERA
3
4
Chase Field
D-Backs
Zac Gallen 12-14, 4.73 ERA
Chase Field
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Phillies
2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 1
D-Backs
1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 X 4 11 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Phillies
    0%
  • D-Backs
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Harrison Bader hits into a force out to shortstop. Bryson Stott out at second.
Quick Box Score
Phillies Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 H. Bader CF410001100.200
2 K. Schwarber DH41210010.51.250
3 B. Harper 1B400000000.000
4 J. Realmuto C30110000.3330.583
5 B. Marsh LF400000300.000
6 A. Bohm 3B41211000.51.750
7 M. Kepler RF400000300.000
8 O. Kemp 2B400000200.000
9 B. Stott SS30200100.6671.750
D-Backs Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 G. Perdomo SS31100100.3331.167
2 K. Marte 2B50110010.20.400
3 C. Carroll RF50110010.20.400
4 G. Moreno DH40100000.250.500
5 B. Alexander 3B41100020.250.750
6 J. McCann C31110010.3331.167
7 J. Barrosa CF000000000.000
8 I. Vargas 1B40210000.51.000
9 J. McCarthy LF41300010.751.750

Phillies vs. D-Backs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Phillies vs. D-Backs
  • Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
  • Time: 8:10 PM ET
  • Venue: Chase Field

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: D-Backs favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 9
  • Moneyline Odds: Phillies -104, D-Backs -110

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Phillies: 57%
  • D-Backs: 43%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Phillies a win probability of 57%, while the D-Backs have a win probability of 43%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Phillies are more likely to beat the D-Backs in the MLB game at Chase Field on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Phillies vs. D-Backs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.