Pirates vs. Cubs: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Pirates vs. Cubs MLB game on Friday, September 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Pirates
Wilber Dotel 1-4, 4.41 ERA
2
12
Wrigley Field
Cubs
Shota Imanaga 9-10, 3.92 ERA
Wrigley Field
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Pirates
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 7 1
Cubs
0 3 2 4 0 2 1 0 X 12 16 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Pirates
    0%
  • Cubs
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Ryan O'Hearn flies out to center field to Tyrone Taylor.
Quick Box Score
Pirates Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 K. Griffin SS4120001.5001.500
2 J. Gonzalez 3B1000000.0000.000
3 B. Reynolds DH3111110.3331.833
4 R. Flores C4010001.2500.500
5 B. Cook CF1000000.0000.000
6 N. Gonzales 2B3010010.3330.833
7 J. Mangum LF4010000.2500.500
8 J. Triolo RF4000000.0000.000
9 R. O'Hearn 1B2000000.0000.000
Cubs Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 M. Shaw 2B0000000.0000.000
2 S. Suzuki RF5331000.6001.600
3 G. Arias SS0000000.0000.000
4 B. Murray 1B1000001.0000.000
5 T. Taylor CF1001000.0000.000
6 T. Thornton P0000000.0000.000
7 M. Conforto LF3011000.3330.583
8 P. Ramirez 3B4210000.2500.750
9 C. Kelly C3122000.6671.750

Pirates vs. Cubs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Friday

  • Teams: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. CHI Cubs Cubs
  • Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
  • Time: 2:20PM ET
  • Venue: Wrigley Field

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Pirates (+1.5, -113), Cubs (-1.5, +112)
  • Moneyline: Pirates +178, Cubs -178
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5 runs (+104/-106)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Pirates: 36.8%
  • Cubs: 63.2%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Pirates a win probability of 36.8%, while the Cubs have a win probability of 63.2%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Cubs are more likely to beat the Pirates in the MLB game at Wrigley Field on Friday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Pirates vs. Cubs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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