Sep 18, 2026
Braves vs. Astros prediction: Atlanta favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/18/2026]
Read Article Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Add Dimers on Google 
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 54.4% win probability for the Mets at Citi Field.
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will lock horns in MLB action at Citi Field on Thursday, starting at 7:15 PM ET.
Nolan McLean (11-9, 3.24 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Mets, while the Phillies have opted for Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.69 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 54.4% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers a complete Phillies vs. Mets prediction, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mets a 54.4% chance of beating the Phillies. According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 62.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 51.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-178) / Mets -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Phillies +113, Mets -115
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+111/-113)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ 53¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Phillies at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 7:15 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
- Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 54.4% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Every Bet, Every Game, Every Day Every plan unlocks every model, tool and insight, only the billing term changes.
MOST FLEXIBLE
Monthly billed monthly
$29.99
Month to month Pay as you go RECOMMENDED
6 Months one payment
$119.99 $149.99
6 months $20 per month Save $30.00 · 20% LIMITED TIME OFFER BEST VALUE
Annual first year
$169.99 $199.99
12 months $14.17 per month Save $30.00 · 15% LIMITED TIME OFFER Every plan includes
Full site access
iOS & Android app
AI bet assistant
Unlimited picks & predictions
Unlimited best bets & props
Unlimited player projections
Private Discord community
Cancel or pause anytime
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
