Mets vs. Guardians prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [8/5/2026]
Get New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians predictions for MLB Wednesday.
The Cleveland Guardians will take on the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Progressive Field on Wednesday, beginning at 6:40 PM ET.
The Guardians will have Tanner Bibee (4-11, 3.81 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Mets are going with Christian Scott (3-3, 2.99 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 51.9% win probability over the Guardians.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's Mets vs. Guardians matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Guardians prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mets a 51.9% chance of defeating the Guardians.
According to our model, the Guardians (+1.5) have a 60.0% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 53.3% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Guardians odds [8/5/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+163) | +1.5 (-170) |
| Moneyline | +100 | -102 |
| Total | o8.5 (+108) | u8.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Guardians picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | +163 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +100 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | +108 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Guardians game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB action between the Guardians and Mets at Progressive Field is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Date: Wednesday, August 5, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Progressive Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 51.9% win probability, will likely beat the Guardians in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
