Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Thursday has +550 odds [7/30/2026]
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, July 30, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for July 30, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — including one value pick the model rates as value at +550.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 22.7% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 20.3% |
| Ronald Acuña (Braves) | 19.2% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 18.9% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 18.6% |
| Austin Riley (Braves) | 18.2% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.8% |
| Brandon Lowe (Pirates) | 17.6% |
| Marcell Ozuna (Pirates) | 17.5% |
| Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox) | 16.8% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.7% chance to go deep, followed by Nick Kurtz (20.3%) and Ronald Acuña (19.2%).
Matt Olson and Cal Raleigh are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [7/30/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Marcell Ozuna (Pirates) to hit a home run
- Probability: 17.5%
- Odds: fanatics+550
- Edge: 2.1%
- Game: Pirates vs. Reds (7:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Rhett Lowder
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Pittsburgh slugger Marcell Ozuna rates as a value play at +550 with fanatics, showing a 2.1% edge.
Against Reds starter Rhett Lowder, the data supports Ozuna as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 30, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Nick Kurtz and Ronald Acuña projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Marcell Ozuna who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.1% edge at +550 odds.
Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Thursday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
