Home run predictions for Thursday include Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber [9/24/2026]

• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 23.6% probability
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 21.5%
• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 19.9%
• Christian Walker (Astros): 19.8%
• Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): 19.4%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 19.2%
• Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): 19.0%
• Isaac Paredes (Astros): 18.8%
• Juan Soto (Mets): 18.7%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 17.6%

Our analysis shows Alvarez leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.6% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (21.5%) and Shohei Ohtani (19.9%).

Christian Walker and Corbin Carroll are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [9/24/2026]

Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro spotlights today’s top home run prop.

Michael Busch (Cubs) to hit a home run

• Probability: 15.2%
• Odds: +870
• Edge: 4.9%
• Pitching matchup: Tyler Phillips
• More game projections: Marlins vs. Cubs prediction (2:20 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Chicago slugger Michael Busch rates as a value play at +870 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 4.9% edge.

Set to face Tyler Phillips in tonight's Marlins-Cubs matchup, the data supports Busch as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 25 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 24, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Michael Busch who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.9% edge at +870 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Thursday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.