Marlins vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/31/2026]
Get Miami Marlins vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Friday.
The New York Mets will face the Miami Marlins in MLB action at Citi Field on Friday, beginning at 7:10 PM ET.
Kodai Senga (0-7, 8.85 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Mets, while the Marlins have opted for Janson Junk (4-6, 4.89 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner in this Marlins vs. Mets prediction.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Marlins vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Mets a 55.9% chance of beating the Marlins.
According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 61.0% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 52.7% chance of going over,.
Marlins vs. Mets odds [7/31/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Marlins | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-205) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +108 | -108 |
| Total | o8.5 (+100) | u8.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Marlins vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | +170 |
| Moneyline | Mets | -108 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | +100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Marlins vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Marlins at Citi Field is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
- Date: Friday, July 31, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 55.9% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
