Marlins vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [9/22/2026]

MLB action continues on Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET as the Miami Marlins lock horns with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Shota Imanaga (11-10, 3.80 ERA) will be on the bump for the Cubs, while the Marlins have opted for Janson Junk (6-9, 4.50 ERA).

Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Marlins vs. Cubs prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Marlins vs. Cubs prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday's MLB game between the Marlins and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Cubs a 65.7% chance of defeating the Marlins. According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 53.3% chance of covering the run line, while the 6.5-run over/under has a 58.4% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-127) / Cubs -1.5 (+122)
• Moneyline: Marlins +190, Cubs -194
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-108/+108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Cubs -1.5 @ 45¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Marlins @ 34¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 6.5 @ 52¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Tuesday's MLB game between the Cubs and Marlins at Wrigley Field is scheduled to commence at 7:40 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
• Date: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
• Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
• Venue: Wrigley Field

Conclusion

We predict the Cubs, with a 65.7% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Tuesday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.