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Read Article Cubs vs. Red Sox prediction: Cubs favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/27/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 51.5% win probability for the Cubs at Tropicana Field.
The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs will lock horns in MLB action at Tropicana Field on Sunday, starting at 3:05 PM ET.
Tanner Houck (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will get the ball for the Red Sox, while the Cubs have opted for Shota Imanaga (11-10, 3.74 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 51.5% win probability over the Red Sox.
This article offers a complete Cubs vs. Red Sox prediction, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Red Sox prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Cubs a 51.5% chance of defeating the Red Sox. According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 60.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 57.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+156) / Red Sox +1.5 (-163)
- Moneyline: Cubs -111, Red Sox +106
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-102/-102)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 @ 39¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Red Sox @ 49¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Sunday's MLB action between the Red Sox and Cubs at Tropicana Field is scheduled to begin at 3:05 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
- Time: 3:05 PM ET/12:05PM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 51.5% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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