Sep 16, 2026
White Sox vs. Guardians prediction: Why Cleveland is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/16/2026]
Read Article Orioles vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 58.9% win probability for the Mets at Citi Field.
The New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles will lock horns in MLB action at Citi Field on Wednesday, starting at 7:10 PM ET.
The Mets will send Robert Stock (1-3, 5.93 ERA) to the mound, while the Orioles will counter with Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.88 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner in this Orioles vs. Mets prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Orioles vs. Mets prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Orioles and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Mets a 58.9% chance of defeating the Orioles. According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 57.7% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 55.8% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Orioles +1.5 (-163) / Mets -1.5 (+163)
- Moneyline: Orioles +123, Mets -125
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-114/+117)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 38¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Mets @ 56¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ -114 via BetRivers
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB action between the Mets and Orioles at Citi Field is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets
- Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 58.9% win probability, will likely beat the Orioles in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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