Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [7/28/2026]
Get Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Tuesday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will face the Arizona Diamondbacks, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at PNC Park on Tuesday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.
The Pirates will have Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.47 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Brandon Pfaadt (5-1, 4.43 ERA) for the Diamondbacks.
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 50.4% win probability over the Diamondbacks.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's Diamondbacks vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 50.4% chance of defeating the Diamondbacks.
According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 64.6% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 50.4% chance of going over,.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates odds [7/28/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Diamondbacks | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+165) |
| Moneyline | +104 | +105 |
| Total | o9.5 (+113) | u9.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Diamondbacks +1.5 | -200 |
| Moneyline | Pirates | +105 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | +113 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Diamondbacks at PNC Park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 50.4% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
