Toluca vs. Puebla Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Puebla Liga MX match on September 15, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
Hoops season sale: $30 off Dimers Pro passes. Limited time only.
FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Toluca
1
0
Puebla
PueblaPBL
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
J. R. Pachuca Martinez (o.g.) (69')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Puebla
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    Bruno Mendez (Toluca) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: O. Villa replaces F. Monarrez
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: A. Herrera replaces A. Organista
  4. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: I. Moreno replaces J. R. Pachuca Martinez
  5. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: O. Virgen replaces Paulinho
  6. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Luan replaces F. Vinas
  7. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: O. F. Moreno Villegas replaces B. Garnica
  8. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: H. Jurado replaces C. Baltazar
  9. 69'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. R. Pachuca Martinez (o.g.)
    1-0
  10. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces E. del Villar
  11. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz Price replaces J. Angulo
  12. 57'
    Yellow Card
    I. Maestro (Puebla) cautioned
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: V. Guzman replaces F. Romero

Toluca vs. Puebla: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Puebla
  • Date: Tuesday, September 15, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca -205, Puebla +500, draw +360
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-178/+146)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 59.1%
  • Puebla: 20.2%
  • Draw: 20.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 2-1 Puebla (9.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

Unlock today's best bets for this match with Dimers Pro—cancel anytime.

Who will win Toluca vs. Puebla? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 59.1%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 2-1 Puebla.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Get Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Toluca vs. Puebla, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.