Toluca vs. Cruz Azul Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Cruz Azul Liga MX match on August 23, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Toluca
0
1
Aug 23, 11:05 PM ET Estadio Olímpico Universitario (Ciudad de México (D.F.))
Cruz Azul
Aug 23, 11:05 PM ET Estadio Olímpico Universitario (Ciudad de México (D.F.))
Cruz AzulCRA
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
L. Romero (78')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Cruz Azul
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Yellow Card
N. Castro (Toluca) cautioned
87'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: M. Levy replaces I. Rivero
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: O. Virgen replaces D. Barbosa
78'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Cruz Azul by L. Romero, assisted by J. Orozco
0-1
77'
Yellow Card
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco (Toluca) cautioned
77'
Yellow Card
C. Rotondi (Cruz Azul) cautioned
77'
Yellow Card
D. Barbosa (Toluca) cautioned
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: G. Fernandez replaces A. Sepulveda
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: L. Romero replaces C. Rodriguez
73'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces J. Angulo
73'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. P. Dominguez Chonteco replaces A. Vega
66'
Yellow Card
C. Rodriguez (Cruz Azul) cautioned
64'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: L. Faravelli replaces J. Paradela
62'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: Paulinho replaces R. Morales
56'
Yellow Card
G. Piovi (Cruz Azul) cautioned
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: F. Romero replaces H. Herrera

Toluca vs. Cruz Azul: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Cruz Azul
  • Date: Saturday, August 23, 2025
  • Time: 11:05 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +210, Cruz Azul +115, draw +275
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-170/+138)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 28.6%
  • Cruz Azul: 48.3%
  • Draw: 23.2%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul (10.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Toluca vs. Cruz Azul? Prediction & correct score

Cruz Azul is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 48.3%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

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