Club Leon vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Club Leon vs. Toluca Liga MX match on April 25, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Club Leon
1
4
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
Club LeonLEO
S. Cordova (5')
Soccer ball icon
F. Arce (59')
Soccer ball icon
A. Briseno (65')
Red Card icon
J. Diaz (73')
Soccer ball icon
N. Castro (76')
Soccer ball icon
D. Cambindo (45')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Club Leon
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 80'
    Yellow Card
    B. Colula (Club Leon) cautioned
  2. 76'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by N. Castro, assisted by J. Diaz
    1-4
  3. 73'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Diaz, assisted by J. Gallardo
    1-3
  4. 73'
    Yellow Card
    J. Diaz (Toluca) cautioned
  5. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces S. Cordova
  6. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Club Leon: A. Alvarado replaces R. Echeverria
  7. 65'
    Red Card
    A. Briseno (Toluca) sent off for a second yellow card
  8. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Bruno Mendez replaces E. Orta
  9. 59'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by F. Arce, assisted by J. Gallardo
    1-2
  10. 58'
    Yellow Card
    A. Briseno (Toluca) cautioned
  11. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Club Leon: J. P. Dominguez Chonteco replaces E. Rodriguez
  12. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Club Leon: D. Arcila replaces F. Beltran Cruz
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Club Leon: P. Bellon replaces S. Barreiro
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Club Leon: B. Colula replaces I. Moreno
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz replaces F. Rossi
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Gallardo replaces M. Isais
  17. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Club Leon by D. Cambindo, assisted by I. Diaz
    1-1
  18. 34'
    Yellow Card
    S. Barreiro (Club Leon) cautioned
  19. 27'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Romero replaces O. Virgen
  20. 23'
    Yellow Card
    E. Rodriguez (Club Leon) cautioned
  21. 22'
    Yellow Card
    F. Rossi (Toluca) cautioned
  22. 21'
    Yellow Card
    L. Garcia (Toluca) cautioned
  23. 5'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by S. Cordova, assisted by A. Vega
    0-1

Club Leon vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Club Leon vs. Toluca
  • Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
  • Time: 9:05 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Club Leon +330, Toluca -115, draw +300
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-188/+140)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Club Leon: 19.0%
  • Toluca: 60.6%
  • Draw: 20.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Club Leon 1-2 Toluca (9.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Club Leon vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 60.6%.

The most likely correct score is Club Leon 1-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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