Necaxa vs. Queretaro Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Necaxa vs. Queretaro Liga MX match on April 11, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Necaxa
1
3
Estadio La Corregidora
Queretaro
Estadio La Corregidora
QueretaroQUT
Score Summary
NecaxaNEC
S. Homenchenko (29')
Soccer ball icon
M. Coronel (45')
Soccer ball icon
M. Coronel (81')
Soccer ball icon
T. Badaloni (61')
Soccer ball icon
L. Faravelli (75')
Red Card icon
A. Oliveros (85')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Queretaro
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Necaxa
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 89'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: J. Gomez replaces C. Garcia
  2. 89'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: B. Parra replaces M. Coronel
  3. 89'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: F. Mendez replaces R. Monreal
  4. 85'
    Red Card
    A. Oliveros (Necaxa) sent off with a straight red card
  5. 84'
    Yellow Card
    J. Ruiz (Necaxa) cautioned
  6. 81'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Queretaro by M. Coronel, assisted by L. Rodriguez
    1-3
  7. 75'
    Red Card
    L. Faravelli (Necaxa) sent off with a straight red card
  8. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: R. Cortez replaces K. Gutierrez
  9. 61'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Necaxa by T. Badaloni, assisted by A. Oliveros
    1-2
  10. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: M. A. Carcelen Carabali replaces D. Parra
  11. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: L. Rodriguez replaces J. Unjanque
  12. 54'
    Yellow Card
    B. Duarte (Queretaro) cautioned
  13. 53'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: A. E. Almendra replaces D. Leyva
  14. 53'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: E. Lara replaces R. Martinez
  15. 53'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: I. Tello replaces C. Calderon
  16. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Queretaro by M. Coronel
    0-2
  17. 39'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: F. Venegas replaces Jhojan Julio
  18. 29'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Queretaro by S. Homenchenko, assisted by C. Garcia
    0-1
  19. 25'
    Yellow Card
    R. Monreal (Necaxa) cautioned

Necaxa vs. Queretaro: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Necaxa vs. Queretaro
  • Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio La Corregidora

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Necaxa +190, Queretaro +145, draw +250
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-125/+100)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Necaxa: 36.2%
  • Queretaro: 38.4%
  • Draw: 25.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Necaxa 1-1 Queretaro (12.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Necaxa vs. Queretaro? Prediction & correct score

Queretaro is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 38.4%.

The most likely correct score is Necaxa 1-1 Queretaro.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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