Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM Liga MX match on March 3, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Toluca
3
2
Pumas UNAM
Pumas UNAMUNAM
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
R. Morales (pen.) (29')
Soccer ball icon
A. Angulo (63')
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J. Angulo (37')
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D. Barbosa (73')
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Paulinho (79')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Pumas UNAM
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for UNAM Pumas: C. Garza replaces P. Vite
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for UNAM Pumas: R. Duarte replaces A. Azuaje
  3. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: A. Briseno replaces J. Angulo
  4. 79'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by J. Gallardo
    3-2
  5. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces J. Diaz
  6. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for UNAM Pumas: G. Martinez replaces A. Medina
  7. 73'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by D. Barbosa, assisted by Helinho
    2-2
  8. 63'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for UNAM Pumas by A. Angulo, assisted by U. Antuna
    1-2
  9. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces Luan
  10. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for UNAM Pumas: U. Antuna replaces J. Carrillo
  11. 38'
    Yellow Card
    J. Angulo (Toluca) cautioned
  12. 37'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Angulo, assisted by P. Perez
    1-1
  13. 29'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for UNAM Pumas by R. Morales (pen.)
    0-1

Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM
  • Date: Tuesday, March 3, 2026
  • Time: 10:10 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca -105, Pumas UNAM +290, draw +260
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-138/+112)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 43.7%
  • Pumas UNAM: 31.4%
  • Draw: 24.9%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Pumas UNAM (11.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 43.7%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Pumas UNAM.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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