Guadalajara vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Guadalajara vs. Toluca Liga MX match on February 28, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Guadalajara
0
2
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
GuadalajaraGCH
J. Gallardo (pen.) (5')
Soccer ball icon
J. Diaz (16')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Guadalajara
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    M. Ruiz (Toluca) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Luan replaces J. Gallardo
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Arce replaces M. Ruiz
  4. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces J. Angulo
  5. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces J. Diaz
  6. 67'
    Yellow Card
    A. Sepulveda (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
  7. 64'
    Yellow Card
    D. Aguirre (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
  8. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: R. Marin replaces A. Gonzalez
  9. 53'
    Yellow Card
    F. Gonzalez (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
  10. 51'
    Yellow Card
    J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
  11. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: E. del Villar replaces S. Simon
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: S. Sandoval replaces J. Castillo
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: A. Sepulveda replaces E. Alvarez
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: H. Camberos replaces R. Ledezma
  15. 45'
    Yellow Card
    D. Barbosa (Toluca) cautioned
  16. 40'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: B. Gutierrez replaces L. Romo
  17. 16'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Diaz, assisted by Paulinho
    0-2
  18. 13'
    Yellow Card
    F. Romero (Toluca) cautioned
  19. 5'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Gallardo (pen.)
    0-1

Guadalajara vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Guadalajara vs. Toluca
  • Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
  • Time: 6:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Guadalajara +255, Toluca +115, draw +240
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-105/-115)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Guadalajara: 24.3%
  • Toluca: 51.2%
  • Draw: 24.6%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Guadalajara 1-1 Toluca (11.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Guadalajara vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 51.2%.

The most likely correct score is Guadalajara 1-1 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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