Toluca vs. Necaxa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Necaxa Liga MX match on February 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Toluca
3
0
Estadio Victoria
Necaxa
Estadio Victoria
NecaxaNEC
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
Paulinho (79')
Soccer ball icon
Paulinho (83')
Soccer ball icon
F. Pereira (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Necaxa
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by F. Pereira, assisted by S. Cordova
    3-0
  2. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: K. Gutierrez replaces D. Leyva
  3. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: F. Rossano replaces R. Martinez
  4. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: M. Isais replaces J. Gallardo
  5. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Luan replaces S. Simon
  6. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Rossi replaces Paulinho
  7. 83'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by J. Diaz
    2-0
  8. 79'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by J. Diaz
    1-0
  9. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: T. Badaloni replaces J. Carranza
  10. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Cordova replaces J. Angulo
  11. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz replaces P. Perez
  12. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: J. Ruiz replaces A. Pena
  13. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Necaxa: E. Lara replaces A. E. Almendra
  14. 52'
    Yellow Card
    E. Unsain (Necaxa) cautioned
  15. 37'
    Yellow Card
    F. Pereira (Toluca) cautioned
  16. 29'
    Yellow Card
    A. Pena (Necaxa) cautioned
  17. 22'
    Yellow Card
    R. Monreal (Necaxa) cautioned
  18. 22'
    Yellow Card
    J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
  19. 14'
    Yellow Card
    M. Ruiz (Toluca) cautioned
  20. 9'
    Yellow Card
    R. Martinez (Necaxa) cautioned

Toluca vs. Necaxa: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Necaxa
  • Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Victoria

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca -157, Necaxa +430, draw +300
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-120/+108)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 54.8%
  • Necaxa: 23.1%
  • Draw: 22.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Necaxa (10.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Toluca vs. Necaxa? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 54.8%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Necaxa.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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