Toluca vs. Puebla Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Puebla Liga MX match on January 30, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Toluca
0
:
0
Puebla
PueblaPBL
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
N. Diaz (63')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Puebla
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    (Puebla) cautioned
  2. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz replaces J. Angulo
  3. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces N. Castro
  4. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: E. del Villar replaces Bruno Mendez
  5. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: M. Ramirez replaces E. Gomez
  6. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: B. Garnica replaces E. Guerra
  7. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: J. R. Pachuca Martinez replaces C. Baltazar
  8. 63'
    Red Card
    N. Diaz (Puebla) sent off with a straight red card
  9. 62'
    Yellow Card
    J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
  10. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Rossi replaces S. Cordova
  11. 60'
    Yellow Card
    M. Ruiz (Toluca) cautioned
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: A. Ramirez replaces A. Organista
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Puebla: K. Velasco replaces L. Rey
  14. 45'
    Penalty missed by S. Cordova for Toluca
  15. 45'
    Yellow Card
    Bruno Mendez (Toluca) cautioned
  16. 45'
    Yellow Card
    E. Guerra (Puebla) cautioned

Toluca vs. Puebla: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Puebla
  • Date: Friday, January 30, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca -210, Puebla +600, draw +340
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-135/-105)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 61.8%
  • Puebla: 17.4%
  • Draw: 20.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 2-0 Puebla (10.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Toluca vs. Puebla? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 61.8%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 2-0 Puebla.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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