Toluca vs. Tigres UANL Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Tigres UANL Liga MX match on December 11, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Toluca
0
1
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANLUANL
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
A. Correa (46')
Soccer ball icon
R. Morales (90')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Tigres UANL
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Red Card
    R. Morales (Toluca) sent off with a straight red card
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    F. Pereira (Toluca) cautioned
  3. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. P. Dominguez Chonteco replaces N. Castro
  4. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: J. Aquino replaces M. Farfan
  5. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: U. Antuna replaces J. Brunetta
  6. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: J. Sanchez replaces J. Angulo
  7. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces Paulinho
  8. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: N. Ibanez replaces A. Gignac
  9. 63'
    Yellow Card
    J. Garza (Tigres UANL) cautioned
  10. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: D. Barbosa replaces Bruno Mendez
  11. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces J. Angulo
  12. 46'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Tigres UANL by A. Correa, assisted by D. Lainez
    0-1
  13. 24'
    Yellow Card
    J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
  14. 18'
    Yellow Card
    J. Angulo (Tigres UANL) cautioned

Toluca vs. Tigres UANL: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Tigres UANL
  • Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +270, Tigres UANL +110, draw +240
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-104/-109)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 27.2%
  • Tigres UANL: 48.3%
  • Draw: 24.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Tigres UANL (11.6%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Toluca vs. Tigres UANL? Prediction & correct score

Tigres UANL is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 48.3%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Tigres UANL.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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