Monterrey vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Monterrey vs. Toluca Liga MX match on December 6, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Monterrey
2
3
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
MonterreyMON
F. Pereira (19')
Soccer ball icon
Paulinho (43')
Soccer ball icon
Helinho (pen.) (51')
Soccer ball icon
S. Ramos (pen.) (58')
Soccer ball icon
R. de la Rosa (75')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Monterrey
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 89'
    Yellow Card
    F. Romero (Toluca) cautioned
  2. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: D. Barbosa replaces Paulinho
  3. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Monterrey: L. Ocampos replaces J. Rodriguez
  4. 75'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Monterrey by R. de la Rosa
    2-3
  5. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces J. Angulo
  6. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: A. Briseno replaces Helinho
  7. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Monterrey: E. Aguirre replaces O. Torres
  8. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Monterrey: R. de la Rosa replaces R. Chavez
  9. 58'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Monterrey by S. Ramos (pen.)
    1-3
  10. 51'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho (pen.)
    0-3
  11. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Monterrey: A. Martial replaces L. Reyes
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Monterrey: I. Fimbres replaces F. Ambriz
  13. 43'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by N. Castro
    0-2
  14. 19'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by F. Pereira, assisted by Helinho
    0-1

Monterrey vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Monterrey vs. Toluca
  • Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Monterrey +650, Toluca -250, draw +410

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Monterrey: 18.0%
  • Toluca: 62.7%
  • Draw: 19.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Monterrey 1-2 Toluca (9.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Monterrey vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 62.7%.

The most likely correct score is Monterrey 1-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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