Toluca vs. Monterrey Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Monterrey Liga MX match on December 3, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Toluca
0
1
Dec 3, 10:10 PM ET
Monterrey
Dec 3, 10:10 PM ET
MonterreyMON
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
G. Berterame (39')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Monterrey
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Monterrey: A. Urias replaces S. Canales
89'
Yellow Card
J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
88'
Substitution
Substitution for Monterrey: V. Guzman replaces G. Berterame
88'
Substitution
Substitution for Monterrey: J. Moxica replaces I. Fimbres
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. P. Dominguez Chonteco replaces D. Barbosa
85'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces N. Castro
80'
Yellow Card
G. Berterame (Monterrey) cautioned
74'
Yellow Card
D. Barbosa (Toluca) cautioned
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: S. Simon replaces Helinho
59'
Yellow Card
Helinho (Toluca) cautioned
58'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. Angulo replaces A. Briseno
54'
Substitution
Substitution for Monterrey: R. de la Rosa replaces J. Corona
39'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Monterrey by G. Berterame, assisted by J. Corona
0-1

Toluca vs. Monterrey: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Monterrey
  • Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
  • Time: 10:10 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +150, Monterrey +170, draw +260
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-144/+118)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 37.3%
  • Monterrey: 39.0%
  • Draw: 23.8%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Monterrey (10.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Toluca vs. Monterrey? Prediction & correct score

Monterrey is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 39.0%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Monterrey.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

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