Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano La Liga match on September 12, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LA LIGA
FINAL
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Rayo Vallecano
1
4
Real Madrid
Real MadridRMA
Score Summary
Rayo VallecanoRVC
K. Mbappe (pen.) (14')
Soccer ball icon
A. Carreras (17')
Soccer ball icon
J. Bellingham (35')
Soccer ball icon
K. Mbappe (90')
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S. Camello (51')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Rayo Vallecano
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe, assisted by A. Guler
    1-4
  2. 89'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: M. Cucurella replaces Vinicius Junior
  3. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: I. Balliu replaces A. Pedrosa
  4. 76'
    Yellow Card
    P. Ciss (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  5. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: M. Sadick replaces U. Lopez
  6. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Alemao replaces S. Camello
  7. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: A. Guler replaces Y. Diomande
  8. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: A. Tchouameni replaces B. Silva
  9. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: R. Belaid replaces P. Diaz
  10. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: O. Valentin replaces G. Bouare
  11. 51'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Rayo Vallecano by S. Camello
    1-3
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: E. Camavinga replaces F. Valverde
  13. 35'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by J. Bellingham, assisted by Vinicius Junior
    0-3
  14. 17'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by A. Carreras, assisted by K. Mbappe
    0-2
  15. 14'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe (pen.)
    0-1

Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano
  • Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Real Madrid -625, Rayo Vallecano 4¢, draw 11¢
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (77¢/24¢)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Real Madrid: 76.6%
  • Rayo Vallecano: 9.4%
  • Draw: 14.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano (9.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 76.6%.

The most likely correct score is Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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