Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State prediction favors New Mexico State to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives New Mexico State a 53.1% chance of beating Western Kentucky. Our predicted final score has New Mexico State winning 28-26. According to our model, Western Kentucky (+2) has a 50.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 55.5 points has a 50.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Western Kentucky +2 (-109) / New Mexico State -2 (-109)
• Moneyline: Western Kentucky +106, New Mexico State -125
• Total: Over/Under 55.5 (-114/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Western Kentucky +2 @ -109 via Caesars
• Moneyline: Western Kentucky @ +106 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 55.5 @ -104 via Caesars

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Western Kentucky +2 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Thursday's college football game between New Mexico State and Western Kentucky at Aggie Memorial Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State
• Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict New Mexico State, with a 53.1% win probability, will likely beat Western Kentucky in Thursday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.