College football week 5 betting preview: Top players to watch and ranked spread picks

Week 5 arrives with no shortage of college football betting action, three ranked-vs-ranked road tests and a brand-new Heisman favorite, which means we're back with another look at the most notable angles from Saturday's slate.

That's where Dimers Pro comes in, utilizing our full suite of college football prediction tools to leave no angle uncovered in Week 5.

Best college football games to watch in Week 5

Week 5 has just three ranked-vs-ranked matchups, and all three are road tests for the higher-ranked team. Dimers' predictive model simulated each game 10,000 times to produce the win probabilities and projected scores below.

#7 Alabama vs. #16 Mississippi State

No. 7 Alabama (4-0) visits No. 16 Mississippi State (4-0) at 12:00 PM ET on ABC from Davis Wade Stadium, with both teams unbeaten and 2-0 in SEC play.

Alabama has won 16 straight in the series, and the Bulldogs haven't beaten the Tide since 2007. This Mississippi State team looks different, though: sophomore QB Kamario Taylor just threw for 360 yards and three scores in a 31-24 win over Missouri, while Alabama arrives after a 49-18 rout of South Carolina behind QB Keelon Russell.

The Dimers model gives Alabama a 68% win probability with a projected final score of 33-27. That lands exactly on the -6 spread, and the projected 60 points sits just under the 60.5 total.

#5 Ohio State vs. #14 Iowa

No. 5 Ohio State (3-1) visits No. 14 Iowa (4-0) at 3:30 PM ET on CBS, with College GameDay in Iowa City for the first time since 2006.

This is Ohio State's first trip to Kinnick since a 55-24 loss in 2017 that Ryan Day still calls a "scar."

The Buckeyes are coming off a 24-23 loss at Texas, while Iowa is coming off a last-second 20-19 win at Michigan and leads the nation in scoring defense at 8.0 points per game.

The Dimers model gives Ohio State an 86% win probability with a projected final score of 30-16. That 14-point margin is just past the -13.5 spread, and the projected 46 points sits just over the 45.5 total.

#8 Florida vs. #25 Missouri

No. 8 Florida (4-0) visits No. 25 Missouri (3-1) at 3:30 PM ET on ABC from Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field.

The Gators jumped 13 spots to their highest ranking since 2020 after beating Ole Miss, and are averaging 53.5 points per game under first-year coach Jon Sumrall. 

Missouri is coming off a 31-24 loss to Mississippi State, but RB Jadan Baugh leads the SEC with 600 rushing yards and has 11 touchdowns.

The Dimers model gives Florida a 67% win probability with a projected final score of 31-25.

Dimers' spread picks for ranked games in Week 5

Including the three games above, these are the Dimers model's cover probabilities for the favorite in every Week 5 game involving a ranked team, sorted from highest to lowest:

• No. 2 Georgia -24 (55%) vs. Vanderbilt
• No. 7 Alabama -6 (51%) @ No. 16 Mississippi State 
• No. 5 Ohio State -13.5 (51%) @ No. 14 Iowa
• No. 8 Florida -5.5 (51%) @ No. 25 Missouri
• No. 20 Houston -12.5  (50%) vs. UCF
• No. 21 SMU -21 (49%) vs. Boston College
• No. 4 Miami -16.5 (49%) @ Clemson
• No. 10 BYU -6.5 (48%) @ TCU
• No. 3 Notre Dame -21.5  (47%) @ North Carolina
• No. 12 Texas Tech -13.5 (47%) @ Colorado
• No. 17 Tennessee -7.5 (46%) vs. Auburn
• No. 18 USC -10 (46%) vs. Washington
• No. 6 Indiana -24.5 (46%) @ Rutgers
• No. 24 Kentucky +3 (44%) @ South Carolina

Top college football players to watch in Week 5

These are players who need to be on your radar this weekend, whether for player prop betting or keeping tabs on the Heisman race:

WR Malachi Toney (Miami)

Last year's ACC Rookie of the Year hasn't slowed down. Toney has 114+ receiving yards in three of four games and a touchdown in every game, for six total scores so far, including a school-record 234 yards and three scores at Stanford.

No. 4 Miami visits Clemson on Saturday night and the Dimers model projects Toney to clear both his receptions and receiving yards lines, with a 66.4% probability to go over 98.5 receiving yards.

WR Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State)

Smith is the new Heisman favorite after a 12-catch, 217-yard, four-touchdown day against Illinois that tied a school record. He leads the nation with 617 receiving yards and has seven touchdowns through four games.

Some value on WR Jeremiah Smith from Dimers' props.

Iowa's defense is allowing just 8.0 points per game, but the Dimers model still finds an edge on Smith in all four touchdown markets: Anytime, First, 2+ and 3+. 

He also has a 57.5% probability to go over 124.5 receiving yards.

QB Rocco Becht (Penn State)

Becht scored his first rushing touchdown as a Nittany Lion in last week's 24-20 loss to Wisconsin. He ran for eight scores last season at Iowa State before following head coach Matt Campbell to Penn State.

Penn State visits Northwestern on Friday night, and the Dimers model sees a near-coin flip, projecting a 24-23 Penn State win.

We project Becht under his passing yards line, but finds an edge on him to score first and to score anytime at a 36.2% probability.

Dimers' Sweet Spots to look for in Week 5

The "Sweet Spot" is a Dimers Pro feature that identifies the specific betting markets and edge ranges where our model is returning a positive profit over the course of the season.

Across game lines and props, these markets below are where we are seeing the biggest returns so far this season:

Our most profitable markets in college football.

College Football National Championship update: Who will win it all?

Georgia is the Dimers favorite to win the National Championship at 23.1%, but at +550, the Bulldogs also carry the biggest edge over the market of any contender.

Here's how the top five stack up after Week 4 according to Dimers' National Championship Predictions.

Fair odds are what each team's price should be based on its Dimers probability; when the best available odds are longer than fair odds, there's value.

Georgia (23.1%, +550): The No. 2 Bulldogs are unbeaten and picked up six first-place votes in this week's AP poll. The market implies just a 15.4% chance, well short of the model's number.

Notre Dame (15.5%, +650): The Irish held at No. 3 at 4-0 and visit North Carolina this week. A modest edge at +650 against fair odds of +545.

Indiana (13.1%, +1200): The Hoosiers slid to No. 6 after a tight 29-23 win over Northwestern, but the model still has them third. At +1200 (7.7% implied), they're the best long-shot value on the board.

Ohio State (10.5%, +500): Jeremiah Smith has the Buckeyes' offense rolling, but the 24-23 loss at Texas and a trip to Kinnick this week weigh heavily. At +500, the market is pricing them well shorter than their +852 fair odds.

Miami (FL) (9.6%, +800): The Hurricanes jumped to No. 4 behind Malachi Toney and head to Clemson this week. Slightly overpriced at +800 against fair odds of +942.

Bet on college football in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the college football season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single college football game this season via Dimers' college football predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both college football and NFL, as well as all in-season sports during that time.