New Mexico State vs. Missouri State prediction: Why Missouri State is favored to win in college football Week 11 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of New Mexico State vs. Missouri State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Missouri State a 53.2% chance of defeating New Mexico State. Our predicted final score has Missouri State winning 25-23. According to our model, Missouri State (-1.5) has a 51.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has a 50.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: New Mexico State +1.5 (-106) / Missouri State -1.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: New Mexico State +106, Missouri State -108
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (+100/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Missouri State -1.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Missouri State @ 52¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 49.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Missouri State -1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football action between Missouri State and New Mexico State at Robert W. Plaster Stadium is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: New Mexico State vs. Missouri State
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00 PM PT
• Venue: Robert W. Plaster Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Missouri State, with a 53.2% win probability, will likely beat New Mexico State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary college football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.