College football week 11 betting preview: Top players to watch and ranked spread picks

Week 11 arrives with no shortage of college football betting action, which means we're back with another look at the most notable angles from Saturday's slate.

Top-ranked Miami fell in Week 10, leaving just two unbeaten teams in Utah and UCLA, both currently ranked inside the Top 5.

A number of marquee matchups set the stage for more rankings shakeups after Week 11, with dozens of betting angles across them all.

That's where Dimers Pro comes in, utilizing our full suite of college football prediction tools to leave no opportunity uncovered in Week 11.

Best college football games to watch in Week 11

This is one of the best weekends of college football this season, featuring a number of ranked clashes and big college football playoff implications for many of the teams involved, with some inevitably taking a third loss.

Ranks are based on CFP rankings prior to the latest rankings reveal on Tuesday.

No. 10 Ole Miss @ Oklahoma

Ole Miss is in trouble heading into Oklahoma vs. Mississippi.

The home loss to Georgia was its third of the season, which essentially ended its SEC title hopes.

They now go to Norman as short road favorites, and the Dimers model sees it as a pure coin flip: Oklahoma 50.1%, Ole Miss 49.9%.

Since the market has the Rebels favored, any value sits with Oklahoma at +114, where the implied probability is about 47% against our model’s 50.1%. With a fourth loss likely ending its playoff hopes, Ole Miss can’t afford to lose, and the model doesn’t give it much of a cushion.

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 14 LSU

LSU has three losses but is still in the playoff mix heading into LSU vs. Texas, while the Longhorns come in with 2 losses and solid standing in the bracket, which could mean a first-round bye.

Still, the Longhorns are road underdogs at Tiger Stadium, with LSU favored by 3.5. Dimers agrees with the market.

We give LSU a 63.1% chance to win and project a 26-22 final. That’s a four-point margin, just enough to cover the 3.5 in a game that could reshape the SEC playoff picture.

No. 12 Ohio State vs. Northwestern

Ohio State’s season has fallen apart since Julian Sayin went down with an arm injury.

Freshman Luke Fahey is 0-2 as the starter: a 30-18 loss to USC, then a 41-28 home loss to Oregon in which the Ducks scored 38 unanswered points.

The Buckeyes are 6-3, already at risk of missing the playoff, and a fourth loss in Ohio State vs. Northwestern would all but eliminate them from playoff contention.

Dimers still likes them to get back on track against Northwestern with an 80.9% chance to win and a 29-17 projected final.

Top college football players to watch in Week 11

These are players who need to be on your radar this weekend, whether for player prop betting or keeping tabs on the Heisman race.

Last week, we cashed a 2+ TD prop on DeSean Bishop (Tennessee) and the over on CJ Carr's passing yards.

WR Cooper Barkate (Miami)

Star receiver Malachi Toney (73 catches, 1,027 yards, 13 TDs) missed the 31-24 loss to Notre Dame with a high ankle sprain.

In his first game as the clear No. 1 option, Barkate caught 10 passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns.

Miami vs. Duke sees the Hurricanes as 14.5-point favorites and Dimers gives Miami an 83.2% chance to win and projects a 34-20 final, so the Canes should have plenty of chances to score. 

The model likes Barkate to lead the charge with 57.0% to score anytime against a -110 price (about 52% implied), a 4.6% edge.

His 2+ touchdowns prop at +550 also carries value, with an 18.7% probability and a 3.3% edge. Until Toney is back, Barkate looks like the receiver to target in this offense.

RB L.J. Phillips (Iowa)

L.J. Phillips Jr. now sits at the top of it after leading the Hawkeyes with 21 carries for 128 yards in a 24-10 win over Northwestern, and Kamari Moulton is out for the season. Phillips gets a great spot for his first game as the clear top choice entering the game in Iowa vs. Purdue.

Iowa hosts Purdue at Kinnick as a 17.5-point favorite, and Dimers projects a 33-14 blowout with a 91.7% Iowa win probability. That makes him our TD ladder play of the week:

• Anytime TD: 63.0% probability at +105 (14.2% edge)
• 2+ TDs: 23.5% at +650 (10.2% edge, flagged as a Sweet Spot with a 17.4% ROI)
• First TD: 17.8% at +700 (5.3% edge)
• 3+ TDs: 5.6% at +3500 (2.8% edge)

The model shows an edge on every rung, so you can build the ladder as high as you’re comfortable going.

Dimers' Sweet Spots to look for in Week 11

The "Sweet Spot" is a Dimers Pro feature that identifies the specific betting markets and edge ranges where our model is returning a positive profit over the course of the season.

Across game lines and props, these markets below are where we are seeing the biggest returns so far this season.

Multi-touchdown props continue to turn a profit as great returns in an otherwise longshot market.

College Football National Championship update: Who will win it all?

Our favorite for much of the season before a brief drop, Georgia has opened up a big lead as the Dimers model’s favorite to win the National Championship.

Ohio State fell out of the top five altogether after a second straight loss without QB Julian Sayin.

The biggest result of the week came in South Bend, where Notre Dame handed No. 1 Miami its first loss. Georgia routed Ole Miss in Oxford, Alabama won at LSU to move into the top five, and Indiana had a bye.

Here’s how the top five stack up after Week 10 according to Dimers’ National Championship Predictions.

Georgia (33.8%, +250) Georgia crushed No. 10 Ole Miss 42-7 in Oxford, and Gunner Stockton accounted for five touchdowns. We moved the Bulldogs up 11.1%, and even with the market cutting them from +350 to +250, their +5.2% edge is still the best value on the board.

Notre Dame (12.5%, +400) The Irish handed No. 1 Miami its first loss, 31-24, behind 319 yards and three touchdowns from CJ Carr. Our model actually dropped them to 12.5% while the market shortened them from +550 to +400, so at -7.5% they’re the most overvalued team in the top five.

Indiana (10.7%, +1050) Indiana used its bye to give QB Josh Hoover time to heal his arm injury, but Curt Cignetti hasn’t named a starter for USC. The price shortened from +1200 to +1050, which cuts the edge to +2.0%.

Miami (FL) (10.0%, +900) Miami lost its unbeaten record in South Bend while playing without star WR Malachi Toney. We trimmed the Hurricanes to 10.0%, and at +900 they now sit right at fair value.

Alabama (9.7%, +700) Alabama moves into the top five after beating LSU 31-13 in Baton Rouge, with Keelon Russell throwing three touchdowns on an injured ankle. The market is more bullish than our model, though, and at +700 the Tide carry a -2.8% edge.

Bet on college football in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the college football season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single college football game this season via Dimers' college football predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season, giving complete access to both college football and NFL, as well as all in-season sports during that time.