College Football Playoff rankings: How 5 teams on the outside can make a move in Week 10

The first College Football Playoff rankings are out, and amidst all of the hot take reactions and vocal fandoms voicing their disagreement, the teams who are on the outside looking in are left to figure out how they can raise their stock with the committee.

For the teams sitting just outside, Week 10 is the first real chance to respond to their (potential) disrespect in the rankings, and our college football predictions data shows which teams can rise to the occasion on Saturday.

Several of these teams already face what basically amounts to an elimination game this weekend and have little room for error down the stretch.

Here's who needs to make a move, and what the Dimers model says about their chances.

No. 12 Ohio State: The first team out

Ohio State is technically inside the top 12 and still on the outside.

Because Boise State gets an automatic bid as the Group of 6 representative and not currently in the top 12, the 6-2 Buckeyes are the first team left out. Last week's 30-18 loss at USC was their first game without injured quarterback Julian Sayin, and while not their fault, it's undeniably taken a hit to their stock.

The chance to secure a playoff spot starts this week in Ohio State vs. Oregon. The Ducks opened this season ranked and at +800 to win the championship, now currently outside the AP Top 25 but sitting at 23rd in playoff rankings at 5-3.

Dimers gives Ohio State a 74.8% chance to win and projects a 27-19 final. That's a solid win, but against a team that's already been struggling won't do enough on its own, especially if they just barely cover the 7.5-point spread.

Ohio State probably needs to win and look convincing doing it with freshman Luke Fahey under center, because a narrow win over a 5-3 team won't move the committee much.

Keep an eye out for any player prop value in this game as we get closer to kickoff.

No. 13 Tennessee: The most disrespected?

Tennessee has the strongest complaint in the rankings. The Vols beat Alabama 26-10, yet they sit at No. 13 while the Tide are No. 5. The committee was direct in saying they valued the quality of Alabama's wins over Tennessee's.

Saturday is their chance to respond to that criticism.

It's Tennessee vs. Kentucky, and a win over a top-6 team is exactly the kind of result they're missing in the committee's eyes. Dimers gives Tennessee a 69.6% chance and projects a 28-22 win in what our prop value suggests will be a balanced game of scoring on both sides.

Both sides have a featured back the model expects to find the end zone. DeSean Bishop scores a touchdown 85.7% of the time, but as we pointed out in our Week 10 betting preview, he's a candidate for the touchdown ladder. Kentucky's own answer is CJ Baxter, who has a 54.9% chance to score at +110 odds.

A strong win along with some help by this next team, and Tennessee could find themselves within the Top 12 by next week.

No. 14 LSU: Best chance to make a move

LSU's 6-2 record is built on wins over Clemson, Texas A&M and Auburn, so it's the lack of a marquee win that's holding the Tigers back. That's about to change one way or the other. LSU vs. Alabama is the latest edition of a classic rivalry in which LSU can effectively write their own fate.

The good news for LSU is that Alabama is the first of three straight ranked games, so there's still time to climb even if they lose. We did call out over a 50% chance that a 3-loss team would make the playoffs, so a loss isn't a coffin nail.

Dimers makes LSU a 67.4% favorite with a projected 29-23 final, and the model sees Sam Leavitt winning it with his arm.

Leavitt goes over 264.5 passing yards 59.2% of the time, a prop that our model tags as a Sweet Spot with an 11.9% ROI. He also stays under 34.5 rushing yards 59.5% of the time, so expect him to work from the pocket rather than scramble, and we've identified an edge on Jackson Harris to cash in with a touchdown, his eighth in his past six games, at a 49.7% chance (6.2% edge) at +130.

No. 16 Wake Forest: The lowest-ranked one-loss team

Wake Forest is 7-1, its only loss came against No. 1 Miami, and it's ranked 14th in both the AP and Coaches polls.

But the committee put the Demon Deacons at 16th anyway, below six two-loss teams. They haven't had the toughest schedule, ranked 43rd, but another read is that the committee isn't eager to put a second ACC team in the field ahead of another SEC team.

Wake can't fix its schedule now, since there are no currently ranked opponents left. What it can do is dominate as much as possible, and they have a good spot to start that run this weekend in Wake Forest vs. Merrimack.

Our model gives Wake Forest a 99.8% chance with a projected 54-5 final, a 49-point margin just past the 47.5-point spread. Wake has outscored its last four opponents 187-31, and a blowout over 4-5 Merrimack won't impress anyone on its own, but if teams ahead of them stumble on Saturday, a clean, dominant week keeps Wake in position to move up.

No. 18 Missouri: The most to gain

Missouri is the lowest-ranked two-loss SEC team, but it also has the most room to climb.

They might have one of the toughest runs left as Texas, Georgia and Kentucky are still on the schedule, with Missouri vs. Texas up first this weekend. Despite their flaws, Texas has wins over Ohio State, Tennessee and Ole Miss, so beating them is one of the better resume-builders left on the schedule, and the loser will take a third loss.

Missouri is only a 2.5-point underdog, and Dimers gives the Tigers a 44.7% chance to pull out the upset, and the projected final is Texas 23-21. If Missouri pulls the upset, the model says it happens behind a strong passing game by Mizzou QB Austin Simmons.

Simmons goes over 202.5 passing yards 62.7% of the time, and we see WR Cayden Lee over 78.5 receiving yards 64.4% of the time, and WR Donovan Olugbode at 61.4% to go over 60.5 receiving yards.

Texas, meanwhile, is projected to struggle on the ground. Arch Manning stays under 16.5 rushing yards 63.3% of the time, and RB Raleek Brown stays under 61.5 rushing yards 62.2% of the time.

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