College Football Playoff Predictions: Which 2-loss teams can survive a third loss?

It's a very different world in college football betting with the expanded playoff field, soon to be even bigger.

What was once a near-death sentence for making the college football playoffs, two losses won't necessarily end anyone's hopes this season. The Dimers model gives a 99.9% chance that at least one two-loss team makes the 12-team field, and a 53% chance a three-loss team gets in too.

There are currently six 2-loss teams ranked either Top 25 by AP or in the Coaches Poll: Alabama, Texas, Oregon, LSU and Florida.

The Dimers college football predictions model gives all but one of them a path to the playoff even with a third loss, with Missouri, currently ranked No. 22 in the AP Top 25 at 5-2, the lone exclusion.

Below, we walk through each team's playoff probability and how it changes if they win out from here versus dropping one more game.

What a final record means for CFP chances

In Dimers' simulations, two losses is the most common record in the playoff field. With five such teams in the Top 25, and five 1-loss teams in the Top 10, it's no surprise to see that two losses isn't even close to a guaranteed exit, but rather the opposite.

An average of 5.3 2-loss teams make the 12, and 85% of teams that finish with two losses get in. But three losses is where the door nearly closes: only 10% of three-loss teams make it, even though we give at least a 53% chance that at least one 3-loss team is represented in the 12-team field.

There's precedent for a 3-loss team getting in, too. Clemson in 2024 and Alabama in 2025 both made the expanded field with three losses, the latter of which is currently staring down that situation once again.

Which 2-loss teams can survive a third loss?

These five teams all have at least a chance to make the playoffs with a third loss. Each team's overall CFP probability, chance to make it if they win out and chance to make it with a third loss, are below:

Alabama (5-2)

Overall CFP probability: 22%

Win out: 83%

One more loss: 11%

Week 8 matchup: Texas A&M vs. Alabama

Alabama has the best playoff odds of the group, even after back-to-back losses ended a 5-0 start.

The latest was a 26-10 defeat at Tennessee in which the Vols registered five sacks.

The Crimson Tide's toughest SEC games are behind them, and the only ranked opponent left is LSU in Week 10, while Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn make up the rest.

Dimers' model gives Alabama a 22% chance to get into the playoffs in the current picture, the best of these five teams, which jumps up to 83% if they win out.

Alabama is also the highest-rated of the group to win the national title at 2.6%, but that's well below the 6.7% implied by its +1400 price.

Texas (4-2)

Overall CFP probability: 17%

Win out: 84%

One more loss: 11%

Week 8 matchup: Mississippi vs. Texas

Texas took the biggest fall in the latest AP poll, dropping 12 spots to No. 19 after a 27-24 home loss to Florida.

Arch Manning and the Longhorns have perhaps the longest road left of the group: six games, including three against ranked teams.

It starts this Saturday night against No. 7 Ole Miss, where the Dimers model makes Texas a 60.1% favorite and projects a 28-25 win

After that comes Mississippi State, trips to Missouri and LSU, Arkansas, and the finale at Texas A&M. With that pending workload, we give Texas only a 17% chance to make the playoffs in the current climate.

Dimers has the Longhorns at 0.9% to win the national title, against 4.3% implied by +2200 odds.

Oregon (4-2)

CFP probability: 13%

Win out: 83%

One more loss: 6%

Week 8 matchup: Oregan vs. Illinois

As the only team of this bunch not currently ranked in the AP Top 25, Oregon has the least room for error.

Despite sitting with the third-best chance of these teams to make the playoff as thigns stand now, a third loss would drop its playoff chances to 6%, the lowest of the group.

The preseason contender has lost to Oklahoma State and UCLA, the second a 17-15 defeat with seven turnovers. Meanwhile, QB Dante Moore hasn't played since a Sept. 26 concussion, and Dylan Raiola is expected to start on Saturday at Illinois.

After Illinois come two ranked opponents, No. 24 Northwestern and No. 3 Ohio State, then Michigan, Michigan State and Washington

Even in the Coaches Poll, the Ducks are just barely hanging on at No. 25, though they did receive the second-most votes of teams who missed out on the AP top 25 after Week 7.  We give Oregon a 0.7% probability to win the national title, against 1.6% implied by +6000 odds.

LSU (5-2)

CFP probability: 7%

Win out: 87%

One more loss: 11%

Week 8 matchup: LSU vs. Auburn

Though they sit with a 7% chance to make the 12-man playoff field as of now, LSU has the highest win-out payoff of the five.

Running the table would put the Tigers in the field 87% of the time; getting there is the problem. 

We give Lane Kiffin's team just a 6% chance to win out against a closing stretch of Auburn, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas, with three of those games against ranked teams.

LSU did look the part last week when Sam Leavitt went 31-of-38 for 289 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-0 win over then-No. 16 Mississippi State, LSU's first shutout of an SEC opponent in nearly 20 years.

Dimers rates the Tigers at 1.0% to win the national title, which is the second-highest of this group, against 4.2% implied by odds of +2300.

Florida (5-2)

CFP probability: 6%

Win out: 85%

One more loss: 9%

Week 8 matchup: BYE

The Gators jumped back into the AP poll at No. 20 after a 27-24 upset at Texas

Backup quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. filled in for Aaron Philo, who was injured in a 38-19 loss to South Carolina the week before. Like several of these hopefuls, the road ahead doesn't get easier: No. 5 Georgia, Oklahoma, and No. 12 Kentucky await them in the next three weeks.

The Dimers model gives Florida a 5% chance to win out, the lowest of these five teams, and less than a 0.1% chance to win the national title, even if they defy the odds and get into the playoff.

Reading the two-loss race with Dimers

The pattern is the same for all five teams. Win out and each has an 83% to 87% chance of making the playoffs.

Lose once more, and that falls to between 6% and 11%.

Alabama has the clearest path, while LSU and Florida face the hardest schedules. However, with an average of 5.3 two-loss teams in the field, several of these programs could still get in.

Track how each result moves their CFP and national championship probabilities on Dimers.

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