Why Darian Mensah and Trinidad Chambliss can boost their Heisman Trophy chances this weekend

It might be one of the quieter college football betting Saturdays of the season, as three of the top five Heisman Trophy odds leaders are on a bye in Week 8.

Jeremiah Smith, CJ Carr, and Jesse Legree are all off, leaving Saturday to QBs Darian Mensah and Trinidad Chambliss, the second- and third-place contenders based on the odds at bet365 sportsbook.

With the -125 favorite off national TV, the two quarterbacks chasing him get a clean shot to make their case.

Using our college football predictions and best player props, we can see what the Dimers Pro data says about Miami, Ole Miss, and their Heisman hopefuls under center on Saturday.

Top 5 Heisman Trophy odds and Week 8 college football schedule

Heisman odds via bet365 as of October 23, 2026.

Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (+325)

Mensah and unbeaten Miami have one of the friendliest Week 8 spots of any team. Miami vs. Pittsburgh kicks off at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday with the hosts as a 23.5-point favorite.

Dimers gives the Hurricanes a 93.5% win probability and projects a 34-15 final., and our model's player props point to a big day. In our college football player props, we've got Mensah over 260.5 passing yards at a 62.8% probability (9.3% edge) and over 6.5 rushing yards at 63.9% (10.6% edge).

He's completing 80.8% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and one interception this season, the most efficient mark in the nation, and his Heisman Trophy odds already took a big jump from +1000 to +390 after a 326-yard, three-touchdown night in a double-overtime win over Florida State.

He's not the only contender on the board in this game, either.

Miami WR Malachi Toney sits eighth on the Heisman board at +2800. Toney ranks third nationally in receptions, fourth in receiving yards and fifth in receiving touchdowns. Dimers projects him over 7.5 receptions (67.9%) and over 103.5 receiving yards (62.9%), with an edge above 9% on each.

Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss (+650)

Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss gets the biggest stage of the week, and one of the toughest tests: Ole Miss vs. Texas, on primetime this Saturday.

Dimers gives Ole Miss a 39.9% win probability as a 3.5-point underdog, close to the 41.0% implied by its +144 moneyline, and projects a 28-25 Texas win.

A road upset in primetime is the kind of performance Heisman voters become enamored with, and it wouldn't be the first such performance for the Rebels, upsetting their old coach Lane Kiffin as 3-point underdogs early this season.

Our model's props lean on his legs, with Chambliss over 16.5 rushing yards at 59.5% (6.2% edge), and giving him a 48.6% chance to score a touchdown, above the 43.5% implied by +130 odds.

He's coming off 241 passing yards, three touchdown passes and a rushing score in a 31-3 rout of Missouri, his fourth straight game with a rushing score, of which he has six this year.

How to bet the Heisman Trophy contenders on a bye

Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (-125)

WR Jeremiah Smith is on a bye, but that doesn't mean there isn't value on the Heisman Trophy favorite, in a way.

Ohio State is Dimers' favorite to win the national title at 20.0%, ahead of Georgia (17.5%) and Notre Dame (13.2%). The best available odds of +500 imply just 16.7%, so the model rates the Buckeyes 3.3% more likely than the market does.

Smith leads the FBS with 52 catches, and has 984 yards and 12 touchdowns for the 6-1 Buckeyes. However, the open question is at quarterback, where Julian Sayin's shoulder injury puts true freshman Luke Fahey in line to start. The week off gives the two of them time to build chemistry, but also complicates both Smith's Heisman and the team's championship outlooks.

CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame (+1400)

Carr and 6-1 Notre Dame are also on a bye. Carr has 1,721 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and one interception, but a loss at BYU leaves the Irish little margin for error the rest of the way.

Dimers predictions for the National Championship entering Week 8.

As far as championship aspirations, our model is lower on Notre Dame than the market is, giving the Irish a 13.2% chance at the national title, third on the board, against the notably higher 17.9% implied by +460.

Jesse Legree, WR, Oregon State (+1800)

Legree rounds out the trio on a bye. The true freshman leads FBS with 1,040 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, and he's topped 100 yards and scored in every game. All of those marks are higher than Smith as the favorite; however, that production has come against weaker competition than Smith's.

The Pac-12 race is the angle to watch.

Dimers gives 5-2 Oregon State a 37.6% chance to win the Pac-12, right in line with the 37.0% implied by +170, but behind Boise State at 55.9%.

A trip to Boise State is still to come in Week 11, and it could settle both the conference and how seriously voters take Legree.

Final takeaway

With Smith, Carr and Legree idle, Week 8 is a two-man gauntlet for who can climb the board.

Mensah has the easier path to a big stat line, with Miami a 93.5% favorite, while Chambliss has the bigger chance to make a statement as a 39.9% road underdog.

Follow Dimers' game probabilities, player props and futures to see how each result shifts the race.

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