College football week 10 betting preview: Top players to watch and ranked spread picks

Week 10 arrives with no shortage of college football betting action, which means we're back with another look at the most notable angles from Saturday's slate.

The wild weeks continue in college football, with No. 2 Ohio State falling to USC and multiple other ranked teams losing to unranked opponents like Oklahoma State and Northwestern, and another big shakeup at the top of our National Championship predictions.

That's where Dimers Pro comes in, utilizing our full suite of college football prediction tools to leave no angle uncovered in Week 10.

Dimers' spread picks for ranked games in Week 10

These are the Dimers model's cover probabilities for the favorite in every Week 10 game involving a ranked team.

Note: Some of these may feature alternate lines, as that's where model has identified the most value on our pick to cover in the game.

No. 2 Georgia -3.5 @ No. 12 Ole Miss (50.7%)

No. 3 Utah -3.5 vs. No. 7 BYU (49.2%)

No. 4 Notre Dame -5.5 vs. No. 1 Miami (50.5%)

No. 5 UCLA -5.5 @ Minnesota (47.0%)

No. 10 Texas -3.5 @ No. 19 Missouri (52.5%)

No. 11 Ohio State -7 vs. Oregon (49.4%)

No. 13 Texas Tech -16.5 vs. West Virginia (51.9%)

No. 14 Wake Forest vs. Merrimack (no spread available)

No. 15 LSU -4.5 vs. No. 9 Alabama (52.1%)

No. 16 Tennessee -5.5 vs. No. 8 Kentucky (50.5%)

No. 17 Houston -9.5 vs. Cincinnati (47.9%)

No. 20 Boise State -17.5 @ Colorado State (47.6%)

No. 21 Iowa +2.5 @ Northwestern (50.5%)

No. 22 New Mexico -9.5 @ Nevada (47.4%)

No. 23 South Carolina -4.5 vs. Texas A&M (56.3%)

No. 24 Arizona -9.5 vs. TCU (49.2%)

No. 25 Florida -6.5 vs. Oklahoma (50.7%)

Best college football games to watch in Week 10

This is one of the best weekends of college football this season, featuring a number of ranked clashes and big college football playoff implications for many of the teams involved, with some inevitably taking a third loss.

No. 1 Miami vs. No. 4 Notre Dame

Miami is 8-0 and has the nation’s top scoring offense at 47.6 points per game, led by Heisman front-runner Darian Mensah (25 TD, 1 INT, 80.7% completions).

Even so, Miami vs. Notre Dame sees the Hurricanes as an underdog for the first time this season. Notre Dame has the country’s No. 1 defense by yards allowed (236.1 per game) and carry a grudge; Miami beat them 27-24 in the 2025 opener, and that result decided the last College Football Playoff spot.

Miami’s run defense is No. 1 in the country, but its pass defense ranks 121st, which is an obvious opening for longshot Heisman contender CJ Carr.

Dimers projects Notre Dame to win 31-25 and gives Miami a 37.4% chance, a little above the roughly 35% implied by its +186 moneyline.

No. 3 Utah vs. No. 7 BYU

Utah is 8-0 and alone atop the Big 12 heading into BYU vs. Utah. BYU is 7-1, but lost at UCF and then barely got past Arizona State 27-20, rushing for just 47 yards.

This is the first "Holy War" matchup between two top-10 teams, and BYU has won three straight in the series, including a 22-21 win the last time it visited Salt Lake City.

Bear Bachmeier has never played in Rice-Eccles, and BYU may get star RB LJ Martin back after he missed four games. Dimers gives Utah a 65.0% chance to win and projects a 27-22 final, a five-point margin against a 3.5-point line, with a combined 49 points against a total of 47.5, pointing to some value in the spread and total markets.

No. 19 Missouri vs. No. 10 Texas

Missouri vs. Texas will see one team exit with a third loss, so this is a major blow for their playoff hopes. Texas comes in off a dominant 31-3 win over Mississippi State, but it was costly. WRs Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, RB Hollywood Smothers and two of their DBs all got hurt.

Missouri runs for 167.5 yards a game behind Jamal Roberts, who has five 100-yard games this season, and Ahmad Hardy also made his season debut in last week’s win at Arkansas, though he handled just 2 carries.

Dimers has this decisive matchup as a slight lean towards Texas, with the Longhorns at 56.1% to win and a projected 23-21 final. That two-point margin is just inside the 2.5-point spread, with a lean towards Missouri.

No. 15 LSU vs. No. 9 Alabama

Both teams are 6-2 and coming off a bye in the classic SEC matchup between LSU and Alabama, and the loser’s playoff hopes are all but over.

In his first season at LSU, Lane Kiffin has the Tigers ranked No. 1 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, even after losses at Ole Miss and Kentucky, and Sam Leavitt has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions over his last two games.

Meanwhile, Alabama lost back-to-back games to Georgia and Tennessee, before getting back on track by beating Texas A&M. Dimers gives LSU a 67.4% chance and projects a 29-23 win, a six-point margin against a 4.5-point line, putting 'Bama on the ropes for a run at the National Championship.

Top college football players to watch in Week 10

These are players who need to be on your radar this weekend, whether for player prop betting or keeping tabs on the Heisman race:

RB DeSean Bishop (Tennessee)

Bishop has scored in every game but one this season, with three multi-touchdown games, including one with three. He has 957 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns through eight games and accounts for more than half of Tennessee’s rushing yards.

Kentucky (7-1) is a tougher test than his numbers suggest, holding opponents to 113.3 rushing yards per game, and Bishop is coming off an ankle injury against South Carolina, but HC Josh Heupel expects him to play.

The Dimers model sees value in his production, giving Bishop an 85.9% chance to score (best odds -400), a 72.8% chance to clear 123.5 rushing yards (-114, a 19.5% edge), a 53.6% chance to score 2+ touchdowns at +110, and 22.8% for 3+ touchdowns, each of those coming with an edge.

QB CJ Carr (Notre Dame)

Carr is +1600 to win the Heisman, the fourth-shortest odds and the second-shortest for a quarterback.

On Saturday, he goes head-to-head with two of the top three contenders, Miami QB Darian Mensah and WR Malachi Toney, which makes this the biggest chance he’ll get to change the race.

He’s thrown for 1,849 yards, 18 touchdowns and just one interception, and he gets a Miami pass defense that ranks 121st nationally at 251.9 yards allowed per game.

The Hurricanes stop the run better than anyone, giving up just 60.8 yards per game, so Notre Dame may have to put the ball in Carr’s hands to guide them to victory. Dimers gives him a 55.9% chance to clear 245.5 passing yards, with a 2.6% edge at -114.

RB Mark Fletcher (Miami)

Fletcher is coming off his first three-touchdown game of the season, scoring twice on the ground and once through the air in the 38-35 win at North Carolina.

The performance made him Miami’s career leader in total touchdowns and tied him for the program record in rushing touchdowns, so one more on Saturday gives him that record outright.

He’s scored in every game since the opener and has three multi-touchdown games this season.

Notre Dame has the country’s top defense by yards allowed, but its red-zone defense ranks 108th, which helps his case if Miami can get inside the 20.

Our model gives Fletcher a 56.5% chance to score at +104 (a 7.4% edge) and a 58.6% chance to clear 54.5 rushing yards at -118, as well as value to score first or multiple times.

Dimers' Sweet Spots to look for in Week 10

The "Sweet Spot" is a Dimers Pro feature that identifies the specific betting markets and edge ranges where our model is returning a positive profit over the course of the season.

Across game lines and props, these markets below are where we are seeing the biggest returns so far this season.

Rushing yards, passing yards and receiving yards all saw an increase in ROI from the week before after a strong weekend.

College Football National Championship update: Who will win it all?

After 9 weeks of college football, Georgia is the Dimers model’s favorite once again to win the National Championship. Ohio State fell from the top spot after a loss in Los Angeles.

Injuries made this a rough week for two contenders.

Ohio State played without starting quarterback Julian Sayin. Indiana lost Josh Hoover in the second half and needed overtime again to beat Minnesota 23-16.

Georgia controlled Florida, Notre Dame handled Navy, and Miami survived a shootout at North Carolina to stay unbeaten.

Here’s how the top five stack up after Week 9 according to Dimers’ National Championship Predictions.

Georgia (22.7%, +350) The Bulldogs beat Florida 27-8 in Atlanta for their sixth straight win in the rivalry. They led 24-0 at halftime, forced four turnovers (including a 66-yard fumble return touchdown by Chris Cole) and outrushed the Gators 217-48. We moved Georgia up 5.4%, and the market cut its price from +475 to +350. At +341 fair odds, the Bulldogs now show a small +0.5% edge. Next up is a tough road trip to No. 12 Ole Miss.

Ohio State (15.2%, +1000) With QB Julian Sayin out, Luke Fahey threw for 260 yards and a touchdown in his start. The Buckeyes outgained USC 464-338 and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes, but they gave up too many big plays, including a 69-yard touchdown to freshman Trent Mosley. This dropped Ohio State 10.3%, but the market price nearly doubled to +1000, so they still have some value, but how long Sayin is out will be the key thing to watch.

Notre Dame (14.5%, +550) The Irish beat Navy 35-13 as CJ Carr threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns, and Nolan James Jr. ran for 107 yards and two scores. Notre Dame rose from 13.6% to 14.5%, and its price lengthened from +500 to +550. Against +590 fair odds, their negative value moved from -3.1% to -0.9%, the closest the Irish have been to fair value in weeks. Saturday’s home game against No. 1 Miami will likely move these numbers more than any other game on the schedule.

Miami (FL) (12.0%, +650) The Hurricanes moved to 8-0 by beating North Carolina 38-35, with Darian Mensah going 22-of-29 for 274 yards and three touchdowns. It was the second time in three weeks Miami allowed 35 points, and we trimmed them slightly from 12.3% to 12.0%. Their odds held at +650, so there was little movement as far as value. Miami now goes to South Bend as an underdog for the first time this season.

Indiana (10.1%, +1200) The Hoosiers went to overtime for the second straight week. Grant Wilson came on for an injured Josh Hoover and threw a 25-yard touchdown to Charlie Becker on the first play of OT for a 23-16 win over Minnesota.

Indiana won, but Hoover’s injury pushed our model's prediction of 12.8% down to 10.1% and their odds moved as well from +800 to +1200. The positive edge grew from +1.7% to +2.4%, but how much that value is worth depends on Hoover’s status.

Bet on college football in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the college football season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single college football game this season via Dimers' college football predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both college football and NFL, as well as all in-season sports during that time.