College football picks today: Week 7 Saturday best bets include Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss play [10/17/2026]

Arkansas State -7.5 (+130)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 49%
• Matchup: Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss (7:00PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Arkansas State -7.5 at 44¢ odds. A 49% probability produces an edge of 5.5%, making this the strongest play for today's college football slate.

Arkansas State ML (-208)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 72.3%
• Matchup: Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss (7:00PM ET)

Arkansas State ML carries a 4.8% edge and a probability of 72.3% at 68¢ odds, according to our model.

Long Island University vs. Wagner Over 39.5 points (-116)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 58.1%
• Matchup: Long Island University vs. Wagner (5:00PM ET)

Long Island University vs. Wagner Over 39.5 points at -116 odds shows a 4.4% edge, supported by a 58.1% probability in simulations.

Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5 (+117)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 50.2%
• Matchup: Troy vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (5:00PM ET)

A 4.2% edge and 50.2% probability makes Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5 vs. Troy a value play in the Troy vs. Louisiana-Lafayette matchup, per our model.

Fresno State vs. San Diego State Over 44.5 points (-120)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 58.4%
• Matchup: Fresno State vs. San Diego State (10:30PM ET)

Fresno State vs. San Diego State Over 44.5 points at 55¢ presents a 3.9% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 58.4%.

Louisiana-Lafayette ML (-138)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 61.9%
• Matchup: Troy vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (5:00PM ET)

Our model finds value on Louisiana-Lafayette to win at 58¢, supported by an edge of 3.9%.

New Mexico vs. Hawaii Over 44.5 points (-114)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 57.1%
• Matchup: New Mexico vs. Hawaii (10:30PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on New Mexico vs. Hawaii Over 44.5 points at -114. A 57.1% probability produces a 3.8% edge, making this a strong play for today's college football action.

Murray State +29.5 (-106)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 55.3%
• Matchup: South Dakota vs. Murray State (5:00PM ET)

A 3.8% edge on a 55.3% probability makes Murray State +29.5 at 51¢a solid value play in today's South Dakota vs. Murray State matchup.

San Diego State ML (+257)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 31.6%
• Matchup: Fresno State vs. San Diego State (10:30PM ET)

Our model projects value on San Diego State to win at 28¢. A 31.6% probability produces a 3.6% edge, making San Diego State the favorable ML play in today's matchup.

Eastern Washington +20.5 (-112)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 56.3%
• Matchup: New Mexico vs. Hawaii (7:00PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Eastern Washington +20.5 at -112 shows a 56.3% probability and a 3.5% edge.

NCAAF best bets summary: Saturday, 10/17/2026

As of 4:02PM ET, here are our top college football bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming college football games to bet on now

• Tulsa vs. Rice (4:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Troy vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (5:00PM ET, Saturday)
• South Dakota vs. Murray State (5:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Lamar vs. Southeastern Louisiana (5:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Long Island University vs. Wagner (5:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Washington State vs. Oregon State (6:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Northern Iowa vs. Youngstown State (6:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Morgan State vs. Tennessee State (6:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Florida State vs. Miami Florida (7:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt (7:00PM ET, Saturday)

College football offer for Week 7

Make the most of the picks in this article, including Arkansas State -7.5, with the Bet365 Sportsbook offer below:

Conclusion

Our college football best bets are locked and loaded for October 17, 2026, featuring plays such as Arkansas State -7.5 vs. Southern Miss and Arkansas State ML. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.