Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction: Why Alabama is favored to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Alabama vs. Mississippi State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Alabama a 67.1% chance of beating Mississippi State. Our predicted final score has Alabama winning 33-28. According to our model, Alabama (-5.5) has a 50.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 63.5-point over/under has a 53.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Alabama -5.5 (-108) / Mississippi State +5.5 (-107)
• Moneyline: Alabama -205, Mississippi State +181
• Total: Over/Under 63.5 (-103/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Alabama -5.5 @ -108 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Alabama @ -205 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 63.5 @ -110 via FanDuel

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 63.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Mississippi State and Alabama at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field is scheduled to begin at 12:00 PM ET.

• Who: Alabama vs. Mississippi State
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00AM PT
• Venue: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field

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Conclusion

We predict Alabama, with a 67.1% win probability, will likely beat Mississippi State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.