Lightning vs. Penguins Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Penguins NHL game on January 13, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Lightning
2
1
PPG Paints Arena
Penguins
PPG Paints Arena
TEAM123OTT
Lightning
0 0 1 0 2
Penguins
0 0 1 0 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    100%
  • Penguins
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Lightning
0 0 1 0 2
Penguins
0 0 1 0 1
OT1 03:32 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Arturs Silovs
OT1 02:41 Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
OT1 00:59 Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Bryan Rust
OT1 00:47 Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 19:26 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 19:22 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Arturs Silovs
P3 18:35 Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 18:05 Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
P3 17:33 Shot missed by Anthony Mantha
P3 14:09 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Arturs Silovs
P3 12:55 Dominic James shot blocked by Brett Kulak
P3 12:51 Jack Finley shot blocked by Rickard Rakell
P3 11:52 Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 11:14 Kris Letang shot blocked by J.J. Moser
P3 10:28 Shot missed by Thomas Novak
P3 09:02 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Arturs Silovs
P3 02:47 Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Arturs Silovs
P3 01:42 Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 01:19 Shot missed by Sidney Crosby
P2 18:01 Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Ryan Shea
Play by Play
  1. SO
    End of Shootout period.
  2. SO
    End of Shootout period.
  3. SO
    Shootout Goal scored by Yegor Chinakhov on Andrei Vasilevskiy
  4. SO
    Shootout attempt missed by Lightning
  5. SO
    Shootout Goal scored by Gage Goncalves on Arturs Silovs
  6. SO
    Shootout attempt by Rickard Rakell saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  7. OT1 04:19
    Giveaway by J.J. Moser in offensive zone
  8. OT1 03:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Arturs Silovs
  9. OT1 02:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  10. OT1 00:59
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Bryan Rust
  11. OT1 00:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  12. OT1 00:00
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  13. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  14. P3 19:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  15. P3 19:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Arturs Silovs
  16. P3 19:01
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  17. P3 18:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  18. P3 18:22
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  19. P3 18:20
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  20. P3 18:05
    SHOT
    Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
  21. P3 17:44
    Dominic James won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in neutral zone
  22. P3 17:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Mantha
  23. P3 16:48
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  24. P3 16:48
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  25. P3 16:43
    Dominic James won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  26. P3 16:43
    Stoppage - Icing
  27. P3 16:23
    Dominic James won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  28. P3 15:16
    Giveaway by Erik Cernak in defensive zone
  29. P3 15:04
    Giveaway by Kris Letang in offensive zone
  30. P3 14:36
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Thomas Novak in defensive zone
  31. P3 14:24
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  32. P3 14:13
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  33. P3 14:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Arturs Silovs
  34. P3 13:58
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  35. P3 13:58
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  36. P3 13:22
    Thomas Novak won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  37. P3 12:55
    SHOT
    Dominic James shot blocked by Brett Kulak
  38. P3 12:53
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  39. P3 12:51
    SHOT
    Jack Finley shot blocked by Rickard Rakell
  40. P3 12:14
    Giveaway by Jack St. Ivany in defensive zone
  41. P3 11:53
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  42. P3 11:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  43. P3 11:22
    Lightning won faceoff against Penguins in defensive zone
  44. P3 11:14
    SHOT
    Kris Letang shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  45. P3 10:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Novak
  46. P3 09:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Arturs Silovs
  47. P3 08:58
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
  48. P3 08:58
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  49. P3 08:42
    Stoppage - Icing
  50. P3 07:36
    Shorthanded - Noel Acciari won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  51. P3 07:36
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  52. P3 05:33
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Parker Wotherspoon in defensive zone
  53. P3 04:22
    Giveaway by Evgeni Malkin in offensive zone
  54. P3 03:41
    Giveaway by Brett Kulak in defensive zone
  55. P3 03:10
    Penalty to Anthony Cirelli 2 minutes for Misconduct
  56. P3 03:10
    Lightning won faceoff against Penguins in neutral zone
  57. P3 02:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Arturs Silovs
  58. P3 01:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  59. P3 01:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Sidney Crosby
  60. P3 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in neutral zone
  61. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  62. P2 19:01
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Noel Acciari in neutral zone
  63. P2 18:01
    SHOT
    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Ryan Shea
  64. P2 17:36
    Lightning won faceoff against Penguins in neutral zone
  65. P2 17:36
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  66. P2 16:40
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Evgeni Malkin
  67. P2 15:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  68. P2 15:37
    SHOT
    Brett Kulak shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
  69. P2 15:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kris Letang
  70. P2 15:26
    SHOT
    Kris Letang shot blocked by Jack Finley
  71. P2 15:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  72. P2 15:13
    Thomas Novak won faceoff against Jack Finley in offensive zone
  73. P2 15:13
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  74. P2 15:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brett Kulak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  75. P2 12:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Connor Dewar
  76. P2 12:16
    Penalty to Sidney Crosby 2 minutes for Misconduct
  77. P2 11:57
    Giveaway by Bryan Rust in offensive zone
  78. P2 11:43
    Jack St. Ivany credited with hit on Nikita Kucherov in defensive zone
  79. P2 11:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Arturs Silovs
  80. P2 11:27
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Arturs Silovs
  81. P2 11:09
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
  82. P2 11:09
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  83. P2 10:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Arturs Silovs
  84. P2 10:25
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  85. P2 09:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  86. P2 09:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Arturs Silovs
  87. P2 08:44
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  88. P2 07:04
    Giveaway by Kris Letang in neutral zone
  89. P2 07:00
    Takeaway by Rickard Rakell in offensive zone
  90. P2 06:35
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  91. P2 06:35
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  92. P2 06:32
    SHOT
    Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg
  93. P2 05:08
    Takeaway by Ben Kindel in defensive zone
  94. P2 03:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  95. P2 03:10
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Evgeni Malkin
  96. P2 02:49
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  97. P2 02:30
    Lightning won faceoff against Penguins in neutral zone
  98. P2 01:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by Arturs Silovs
  99. P2 01:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  100. P2 01:03
    SHOT
    Brett Kulak shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  101. P2 01:01
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  102. P2 01:01
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  103. P2 00:31
    Giveaway by Jack St. Ivany in defensive zone
  104. P2 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Noel Acciari in neutral zone
  105. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  106. P1 19:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  107. P1 18:35
    Giveaway by Blake Lizotte in defensive zone
  108. P1 18:30
    SHOT
    Jack Finley shot blocked by Noel Acciari
  109. P1 18:27
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  110. P1 17:52
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  111. P1 17:52
    Stoppage - Hand Pass
  112. P1 17:30
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Thomas Novak in defensive zone
  113. P1 17:28
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  114. P1 16:14
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  115. P1 16:11
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Evgeni Malkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  116. P1 15:50
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Bryan Rust
  117. P1 15:17
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  118. P1 14:43
    Takeaway by Thomas Novak in defensive zone
  119. P1 14:23
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yegor Chinakhov
  120. P1 13:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Arturs Silovs
  121. P1 12:25
    Noel Acciari credited with hit on Erik Cernak in offensive zone
  122. P1 12:22
    SHOT
    Noel Acciari shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
  123. P1 12:13
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  124. P1 12:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dominic James
  125. P1 10:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Shea
  126. P1 09:50
    Giveaway by Pontus Holmberg in offensive zone
  127. P1 08:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Arturs Silovs
  128. P1 08:17
    Connor Clifton credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
  129. P1 08:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  130. P1 07:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  131. P1 07:18
    Noel Acciari won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  132. P1 07:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Arturs Silovs
  133. P1 05:53
    SHOT
    Max Crozier shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon
  134. P1 05:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Parker Wotherspoon
  135. P1 02:51
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  136. P1 02:31
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Arturs Silovs
  137. P1 02:02
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  138. P1 01:54
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  139. P1 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in neutral zone
  140. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Penguins
31Shots on Goal27
43% Faceoff Win % 57%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
33Penalty Infraction Mins14
15Hits13
8 Shots Blocked 15
18Giveaways15
LightningTB
PenguinsPIT
31Shots on Goal27
43% Faceoff Win % 57%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
33Penalty Infraction Mins14
15Hits13
8 Shots Blocked 15
18Giveaways15

Lightning vs. Penguins: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Penguins
  • Date: Tuesday, January 13, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: PPG Paints Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -140, Penguins +130

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 57%
  • Penguins: 43%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 57%, while the Penguins have a win probability of 43%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at PPG Paints Arena on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Penguins predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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