Lightning vs. Flyers Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Flyers NHL game on January 12, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Lightning
5
1
Xfinity Mobile Arena
Flyers
Xfinity Mobile Arena
TEAM123T
Lightning
1 3 1 5
Flyers
0 1 0 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    100%
  • Flyers
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
1 3 1 5
Flyers
0 1 0 1
P3 19:53 Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Noah Juulsen
P3 16:39 Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Darren Raddysh and Anthony Cirelli (Empty Net)
P3 16:37 Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov
P3 16:26 Shot missed by Matvei Michkov
P3 16:15 Shot missed by Christian Dvorak
P3 15:14 Noah Cates shot blocked by teammate
P3 15:08 Shot missed by Rasmus Ristolainen
P3 14:35 Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 12:52 Shot on goal by Rasmus Ristolainen saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 11:26 Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 10:04 Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by teammate
P3 09:06 Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
P3 07:59 Shot missed by Matvei Michkov
P3 07:38 Shot on goal by Matvei Michkov saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 06:36 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 06:08 Shot on goal by Trevor Zegras saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 05:33 Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Dan Vladar
P3 05:31 Power play - Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
P3 04:32 Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Dan Vladar
P3 01:59 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:53
    SHOT
    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Noah Juulsen
  3. P3 19:16
    Denver Barkey won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  4. P3 17:26
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Rodrigo Abols in defensive zone
  5. P3 17:26
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  6. P3 17:24
    Rodrigo Abols won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  7. P3 16:39
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Rodrigo Abols in neutral zone
  8. P3 16:39
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Darren Raddysh and Anthony Cirelli (Empty Net)
    5-1
  9. P3 16:37
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov
    5-1
  10. P3 16:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matvei Michkov
  11. P3 16:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Christian Dvorak
  12. P3 15:16
    Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  13. P3 15:14
    SHOT
    Noah Cates shot blocked by teammate
  14. P3 15:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rasmus Ristolainen
  15. P3 14:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  16. P3 13:23
    Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  17. P3 13:23
    Stoppage - Icing
  18. P3 12:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Ristolainen saved by Jonas Johansson
  19. P3 11:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  20. P3 10:53
    Lightning won faceoff against Flyers in neutral zone
  21. P3 10:36
    Penalty to Travis Konecny 2 minutes for Cross Checking (Drawn by Jake Guentzel)
  22. P3 10:36
    Lightning won faceoff against Flyers in neutral zone
  23. P3 10:36
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  24. P3 10:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by teammate
  25. P3 09:06
    SHOT
    Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
  26. P3 08:40
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  27. P3 07:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matvei Michkov
  28. P3 07:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matvei Michkov saved by Jonas Johansson
  29. P3 07:37
    Stoppage - Icing
  30. P3 07:17
    Noah Cates won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  31. P3 07:17
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
  32. P3 06:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  33. P3 06:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Trevor Zegras saved by Jonas Johansson
  34. P3 05:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Dan Vladar
  35. P3 05:31
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  36. P3 04:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Dan Vladar
  37. P3 03:46
    Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Sean Couturier in offensive zone
  38. P3 03:46
    Penalty to Rodrigo Abols 2 minutes for Misconduct
  39. P3 03:06
    Rodrigo Abols won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  40. P3 03:06
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Player Injury
  41. P3 02:55
    Rodrigo Abols won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  42. P3 02:55
    Stoppage - Icing
  43. P3 02:17
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Flyers in defensive zone
  44. P3 02:11
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  45. P3 02:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  46. P3 01:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  47. P3 00:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Christian Dvorak
  48. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  49. P2 19:59
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  50. P2 19:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Emil Andrae
  51. P2 19:29
    Noah Cates won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  52. P2 19:29
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Darren Raddysh and Nikita Kucherov
    4-1
  53. P2 18:21
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  54. P2 18:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  55. P2 17:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by Dan Vladar
  56. P2 17:25
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  57. P2 16:18
    Penalty to Travis Konecny 2 minutes for Roughing
  58. P2 16:18
    Oliver Bjorkstrand won faceoff against Christian Dvorak in neutral zone
  59. P2 15:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  60. P2 15:05
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Rodrigo Abols in defensive zone
  61. P2 15:05
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  62. P2 14:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Cam York
  63. P2 13:52
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Travis Konecny
  64. P2 13:01
    Power play - Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  65. P2 13:01
    Penalty to Brandon Hagel 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Noah Cates)
  66. P2 12:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Owen Tippett
  67. P2 11:45
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sean Couturier in defensive zone
  68. P2 11:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Ristolainen saved by Jonas Johansson
  69. P2 11:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Travis Konecny saved by Jonas Johansson
  70. P2 10:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  71. P2 07:51
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by J.J. Moser in defensive zone
  72. P2 07:39
    Power play - Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  73. P2 07:29
    SHOT
    Matvei Michkov shot blocked by teammate
  74. P2 07:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Carl Grundstrom saved by Jonas Johansson
  75. P2 06:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Ristolainen saved by Jonas Johansson
  76. P2 06:00
    SHOT
    Dominic James shot blocked by Nick Seeler
  77. P2 05:40
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Christian Dvorak
    3-1
  78. P2 05:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Owen Tippett saved by Jonas Johansson
  79. P2 04:29
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Trevor Zegras in neutral zone
  80. P2 04:29
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Trevor Zegras in neutral zone
  81. P2 04:29
    Penalty to Oliver Bjorkstrand 2 minutes for Misconduct
  82. P2 04:27
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Brayden Point
    2-0
  83. P2 04:06
    Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Sean Couturier in offensive zone
  84. P2 04:06
    Penalty to Rodrigo Abols 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Dominic James)
  85. P2 02:51
    Rodrigo Abols won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
  86. P2 01:55
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  87. P2 01:29
    SHOT
    Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Noah Juulsen
  88. P2 00:59
    SHOT
    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Emil Andrae
  89. P2 00:33
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jake Guentzel assisted by Erik Cernak and Brandon Hagel
    2-0
  90. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  91. P1 19:13
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  92. P1 19:13
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  93. P1 18:52
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Nick Seeler
  94. P1 18:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Dan Vladar
  95. P1 16:41
    SHOT
    Travis Konecny shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  96. P1 16:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Ristolainen saved by Jonas Johansson
  97. P1 14:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  98. P1 14:48
    SHOT
    Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Noah Juulsen
  99. P1 14:21
    Noah Cates won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  100. P1 14:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  101. P1 14:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Dan Vladar
  102. P1 13:52
    Giveaway by Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
  103. P1 13:31
    Rodrigo Abols won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  104. P1 13:16
    SHOT
    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Nick Seeler
  105. P1 12:11
    SHOT
    Sean Couturier shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
  106. P1 12:01
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Sean Couturier
  107. P1 11:13
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  108. P1 11:13
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  109. P1 10:56
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Carl Grundstrom
  110. P1 09:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Trevor Zegras
  111. P1 09:07
    Giveaway by Garnet Hathaway in neutral zone
  112. P1 08:17
    Giveaway by Travis Sanheim in offensive zone
  113. P1 07:57
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  114. P1 05:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rodrigo Abols saved by Jonas Johansson
  115. P1 04:12
    Noah Cates won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
  116. P1 04:12
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  117. P1 02:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Denver Barkey
  118. P1 02:38
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous credited with hit on Owen Tippett in defensive zone
  119. P1 01:33
    Stoppage - High Stick
  120. P1 01:23
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  121. P1 01:10
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  122. P1 01:10
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Pontus Holmberg assisted by Zemgus Girgensons and Yanni Gourde
    1-0
  123. P1 00:13
    Takeaway by Rasmus Ristolainen in neutral zone
  124. P1 00:00
    Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Flyers
26Shots on Goal21
35% Faceoff Win % 65%
4/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
32Penalty Infraction Mins46
10Hits32
11 Shots Blocked 17
9Giveaways19
LightningTB
FlyersPHI
26Shots on Goal21
35% Faceoff Win % 65%
4/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
32Penalty Infraction Mins46
10Hits32
11 Shots Blocked 17
9Giveaways19

Lightning vs. Flyers: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Flyers
  • Date: Monday, January 12, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 5.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -144, Flyers +126

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 58%
  • Flyers: 42%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 58%, while the Flyers have a win probability of 42%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Flyers in the NHL game at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Flyers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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