Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Islanders NHL game on April 9, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
3
5
Apr 9, 10:45PM UBS Arena
Apr 9, 10:45PM UBS Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Islanders | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Islanders | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
P3 19:17 Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P3 18:20 Jake McCabe shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
P3 16:50 Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 16:10 Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 14:34 Troy Stecher shot blocked by Max Shabanov
P3 13:22 Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P3 13:04 Max Domi shot blocked by Adam Pelech
P3 12:30 Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 10:58 Power play - Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
P3 10:17 Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Schenn saved by Artur Akhtyamov
P3 09:51 Power play - Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Artur Akhtyamov
P3 08:46 Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P3 08:25 Shot missed by Simon Benoit
P3 07:52 Ryan Pulock shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P3 07:29 William Nylander shot blocked by Tony DeAngelo
P3 07:16 Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P3 06:16 Shot missed by Luke Haymes
P3 05:45 Shot missed by Carson Soucy
P3 05:13 Troy Stecher shot blocked by teammate
P3 04:41 Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Easton Cowan
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Schenn in offensive zone
SHOT
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
Bo Horvat won faceoff against Luke Haymes in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
Philippe Myers credited with hit on Marc Gatcomb in defensive zone
SHOT
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Max Shabanov
John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
Luke Haymes won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
Max Domi won faceoff against Bo Horvat in offensive zone
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by Adam Pelech
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Ilya Sorokin
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
Power play - Anders Lee won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Schenn saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Penalty to Steven Lorentz 2 minutes for Misconduct
Calle Jarnkrok won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
Penalty to Morgan Rielly 2 minutes for Hooking
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
SHOT
Shot missed by Simon Benoit
SHOT
Ryan Pulock shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
SHOT
William Nylander shot blocked by Tony DeAngelo
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
SHOT
Shot missed by Luke Haymes
SHOT
Shot missed by Carson Soucy
SHOT
Troy Stecher shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Easton Cowan
SHOT
Shot missed by Brayden Schenn
SHOT
Shot missed by Troy Stecher
Jake McCabe credited with hit on Emil Heineman in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Shabanov saved by Artur Akhtyamov
SHOT
Troy Stecher shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Calle Jarnkrok
Casey Cizikas won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
John Tavares won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Calum Ritchie
SHOT
Adam Pelech shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
Power play - Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Schaefer saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Shorthanded - Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Schenn saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Penalty to Nicholas Robertson 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Adam Pelech)
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Emil Heineman assisted by Mathew Barzal and Tony DeAngelo
2-4
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Emil Heineman
SHOT
Philippe Myers shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson
SHOT
Emil Heineman shot blocked by Simon Benoit
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in neutral zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
Max Domi won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Ilya Sorokin
SHOT
Jacob Quillan shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
SHOT
William Nylander shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Ilya Sorokin
Max Domi won faceoff against Marc Gatcomb in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Matthew Schaefer assisted by Tony DeAngelo and Ondrej Palat
2-3
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Ilya Sorokin
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Bo Horvat
SHOT
Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
John Tavares won faceoff against Anders Lee in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Schaefer saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
William Nylander won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
Stoppage - Offside
Marc Gatcomb credited with hit on Troy Stecher in offensive zone
SHOT
Brayden Schenn shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
SHOT
Scott Mayfield shot blocked by teammate
Stoppage - Icing
Bo Horvat won faceoff against Luke Haymes in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Ilya Sorokin
Shorthanded - Giveaway by Ryan Pulock in defensive zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
End of 1st Period.
Power play - Bo Horvat won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
Shorthanded - Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Jake McCabe
Stoppage - Offside
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in neutral zone
Giveaway by Tony DeAngelo in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Giveaway by Morgan Rielly in defensive zone
Max Domi won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
Stoppage - Icing
Takeaway by Ryan Pulock in neutral zone
Jacob Quillan credited with hit on Tony DeAngelo in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Bo Horvat won faceoff against Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Scott Mayfield
SHOT
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jake McCabe
Brayden Schenn won faceoff against William Nylander in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Calum Ritchie saved by Artur Akhtyamov
John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Schenn in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Max Domi won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Marc Gatcomb saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Giveaway by Emil Heineman in defensive zone
Michael Pezzetta credited with hit on Carson Soucy in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Brayden Schenn won faceoff against Luke Haymes in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Steven Lorentz saved by Ilya Sorokin
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Ilya Sorokin
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Marc Gatcomb
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Max Domi
SHOT
Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
SHOT
Shot missed by Adam Pelech
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anders Lee saved by Artur Akhtyamov
SHOT
Shot missed by Anders Lee
SHOT
Shot on goal by Casey Cizikas saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Luke Haymes in neutral zone
Luke Haymes won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
Emil Heineman won faceoff against Luke Haymes in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
SHOT
Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Max Domi won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Artur Akhtyamov
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bo Horvat saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
Max Shabanov credited with hit on Simon Benoit in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
Luke Haymes won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
SHOT
Bo Horvat shot blocked by teammate
Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Giveaway by John Tavares in defensive zone
Bo Horvat won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Bo Horvat won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Casey Cizikas saved by Artur Akhtyamov
Max Domi won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 16 | Shots on Goal | 44 | |||
| 46% | Faceoff Win % | 54% | |||
| 1/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 5/2 | |||
| 20 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 2 | |||
| 21 | Hits | 24 | |||
| 13 | Shots Blocked | 11 | |||
| 12 | Giveaways | 16 |
| |
|---|
| 16 | Shots on Goal | 44 | |||
| 46% | Faceoff Win % | 54% | |||
| 1/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 5/2 | |||
| 20 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 2 | |||
| 21 | Hits | 24 | |||
| 13 | Shots Blocked | 11 | |||
| 12 | Giveaways | 16 |
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Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Islanders
- Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
- Time: 6:45 PM ET
- Venue: UBS Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Islanders favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6.5
- Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +264, Islanders -265
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Maple Leafs: 37%
- Islanders: 63%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 37%, while the Islanders have a win probability of 63%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Islanders are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at UBS Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Maple Leafs vs. Islanders predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
