Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights NHL game on January 15, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
5
6
T-Mobile Arena
Golden Knights
T-Mobile Arena
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
3 1 1 0 5
Golden Knights
1 1 3 1 6
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Golden Knights
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
3 1 1 0 5
Golden Knights
1 1 3 1 6
OT1 02:32 Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
OT1 01:53 Shot missed by Mark Stone
P3 19:31 Shot on goal by Mark Stone saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:54 Shot on goal by Jack Eichel saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:42 Shot on goal by Pavel Dorofeyev saved by Joseph Woll
P3 17:14 Auston Matthews shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
P3 17:05 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 15:50 Goal scored by Pavel Dorofeyev assisted by Mitch Marner and Noah Hanifin
P3 14:39 Shea Theodore shot blocked by Max Domi
P3 13:16 Shot on goal by Braeden Bowman saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:24 Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Adin Hill
P3 10:14 Goal scored by Mark Stone
P3 10:09 Shot on goal by Ivan Barbashev saved by Joseph Woll
P3 08:58 Goal scored by Scott Laughton assisted by Matthew Knies and Steven Lorentz
P3 08:04 Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Adin Hill
P3 06:55 Shot missed by Keegan Kolesar
P3 06:34 Shot missed by Keegan Kolesar
P3 06:09 Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
P3 05:48 Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:41 Shot on goal by Reilly Smith saved by Joseph Woll
Play by Play
  1. OT1 05:00
    End of 1st OT.
  2. OT1 02:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  3. OT1 01:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mark Stone
  4. OT1 00:00
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in neutral zone
  5. P3 19:53
    Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  6. P3 19:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mark Stone saved by Joseph Woll
  7. P3 19:31
    Giveaway by Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  8. P3 19:15
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - Home Timeout
  9. P3 18:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Eichel saved by Joseph Woll
  10. P3 18:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pavel Dorofeyev saved by Joseph Woll
  11. P3 17:14
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
  12. P3 17:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  13. P3 16:01
    Takeaway by Noah Hanifin in defensive zone
  14. P3 15:50
    Stoppage
  15. P3 15:50
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Pavel Dorofeyev assisted by Mitch Marner and Noah Hanifin
    5-5
  16. P3 15:47
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Mitch Marner in neutral zone
  17. P3 15:04
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
  18. P3 15:04
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  19. P3 14:58
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
  20. P3 14:50
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  21. P3 14:41
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
  22. P3 14:39
    SHOT
    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Max Domi
  23. P3 14:31
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in neutral zone
  24. P3 14:31
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  25. P3 13:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Braeden Bowman saved by Joseph Woll
  26. P3 12:37
    Ivan Barbashev credited with hit on Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  27. P3 11:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Adin Hill
  28. P3 10:43
    Giveaway by Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
  29. P3 10:14
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Mark Stone
    5-4
  30. P3 10:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ivan Barbashev saved by Joseph Woll
  31. P3 09:49
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
  32. P3 09:49
    Stoppage - High Stick - TV timeout
  33. P3 08:58
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Reilly Smith in neutral zone
  34. P3 08:58
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Scott Laughton assisted by Matthew Knies and Steven Lorentz
    5-3
  35. P3 08:27
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
  36. P3 08:27
    Stoppage - Icing
  37. P3 08:20
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Reilly Smith in defensive zone
  38. P3 08:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Adin Hill
  39. P3 06:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Keegan Kolesar
  40. P3 06:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Keegan Kolesar
  41. P3 06:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
  42. P3 05:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Joseph Woll
  43. P3 05:43
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Mitch Marner in defensive zone
  44. P3 05:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Reilly Smith saved by Joseph Woll
  45. P3 05:39
    SHOT
    Ben Hutton shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
  46. P3 05:08
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  47. P3 04:16
    Steven Lorentz credited with hit on Zach Whitecloud in offensive zone
  48. P3 03:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Easton Cowan
  49. P3 03:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
  50. P3 02:37
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in neutral zone
  51. P3 02:37
    Stoppage - High Stick
  52. P3 02:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Adin Hill
  53. P3 02:22
    Jack Eichel won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  54. P3 02:22
    Stoppage - Icing
  55. P3 02:10
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in neutral zone
  56. P3 02:10
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Pavel Dorofeyev assisted by Mitch Marner and Tomas Hertl
    4-3
  57. P3 02:07
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Mitch Marner
  58. P3 02:03
    Penalty to Easton Cowan 2 minutes for High Sticking
  59. P3 02:03
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  60. P3 01:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  61. P3 01:03
    SHOT
    Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Troy Stecher
  62. P3 01:03
    SHOT
    Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  63. P3 00:00
    Mitch Marner won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  64. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  65. P2 17:54
    Giveaway by Easton Cowan in offensive zone
  66. P2 17:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Joseph Woll
  67. P2 17:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
  68. P2 16:45
    John Tavares won faceoff against Reilly Smith in defensive zone
  69. P2 16:45
    Stoppage - Icing
  70. P2 16:00
    SHOT
    Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Braeden Bowman
  71. P2 15:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zach Whitecloud
  72. P2 14:58
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  73. P2 14:24
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  74. P2 14:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mark Stone saved by Joseph Woll
  75. P2 14:14
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  76. P2 13:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Shea Theodore saved by Joseph Woll
  77. P2 13:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Cole Reinhardt
  78. P2 12:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
  79. P2 12:46
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Mitch Marner in neutral zone
  80. P2 12:23
    SHOT
    Power play - Auston Matthews shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
  81. P2 12:18
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Adin Hill
  82. P2 11:28
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Braeden Bowman in neutral zone
  83. P2 11:11
    SHOT
    Ben Hutton shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  84. P2 10:51
    John Tavares won faceoff against Mitch Marner in offensive zone
  85. P2 10:51
    Stoppage - Icing
  86. P2 10:35
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tanner Laczynski in offensive zone
  87. P2 10:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Adin Hill
  88. P2 10:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Adin Hill
  89. P2 09:33
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tanner Laczynski in offensive zone
  90. P2 08:43
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  91. P2 08:43
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  92. P2 07:11
    Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  93. P2 07:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  94. P2 06:36
    Giveaway by Reilly Smith in offensive zone
  95. P2 06:22
    Mitch Marner credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in defensive zone
  96. P2 05:51
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Keegan Kolesar assisted by Braeden Bowman and Noah Hanifin
    3-2
  97. P2 05:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Maple Leafs
  98. P2 05:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tomas Hertl
  99. P2 05:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Adin Hill
  100. P2 04:28
    Bobby McMann credited with hit on Jeremy Lauzon in neutral zone
  101. P2 04:20
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  102. P2 03:48
    Giveaway by Mitch Marner in offensive zone
  103. P2 01:33
    Power play - Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  104. P2 01:33
    Stoppage - Offside
  105. P2 00:48
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
  106. P2 00:27
    Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  107. P2 00:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Golden Knights
  108. P2 00:08
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
  109. P2 00:08
    Stoppage - Icing
  110. P2 00:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mitch Marner in neutral zone
  111. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  112. P1 19:31
    SHOT
    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Scott Laughton
  113. P1 19:28
    Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  114. P1 19:28
    Stoppage - Icing
  115. P1 19:21
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  116. P1 19:19
    SHOT
    Ben Hutton shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
  117. P1 18:38
    Mitch Marner won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  118. P1 18:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Eichel saved by Joseph Woll
  119. P1 18:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Max Domi
  120. P1 18:07
    SHOT
    Jeremy Lauzon shot blocked by Max Domi
  121. P1 17:48
    Jack Eichel won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
  122. P1 16:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  123. P1 16:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mark Stone
  124. P1 16:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Eichel
  125. P1 15:45
    SHOT
    Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Philippe Myers
  126. P1 14:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Adin Hill
  127. P1 13:41
    SHOT
    Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
  128. P1 13:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ivan Barbashev
  129. P1 12:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Adin Hill
  130. P1 12:26
    Max Domi won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
  131. P1 12:26
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  132. P1 11:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Reilly Smith saved by Joseph Woll
  133. P1 11:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicolas Roy saved by Adin Hill
  134. P1 10:08
    Giveaway by Philippe Myers in neutral zone
  135. P1 09:57
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Tanner Laczynski in neutral zone
  136. P1 09:55
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Auston Matthews
    2-1
  137. P1 09:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  138. P1 09:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake McCabe
  139. P1 09:33
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  140. P1 09:05
    Nicholas Robertson won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in offensive zone
  141. P1 09:05
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  142. P1 08:59
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  143. P1 08:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Adin Hill
  144. P1 08:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Adin Hill
  145. P1 08:12
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  146. P1 08:12
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Pavel Dorofeyev assisted by Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel
    2-1
  147. P1 07:51
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  148. P1 06:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tomas Hertl saved by Joseph Woll
  149. P1 06:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Jack Eichel
  150. P1 06:36
    Power play - Jack Eichel won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  151. P1 06:24
    Jack Eichel won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  152. P1 06:24
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  153. P1 05:59
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
  154. P1 05:34
    Tanner Laczynski won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  155. P1 05:34
    Stoppage - Icing
  156. P1 05:03
    GOAL
    Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by Matias Maccelli and Brandon Carlo
    2-0
  157. P1 04:48
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
  158. P1 04:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Whitecloud saved by Joseph Woll
  159. P1 04:04
    Giveaway by Mark Stone in neutral zone
  160. P1 03:13
    Takeaway by Mitch Marner in defensive zone
  161. P1 02:35
    Tanner Laczynski won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  162. P1 02:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Adin Hill
  163. P1 02:22
    Giveaway by Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  164. P1 02:05
    Tanner Laczynski won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  165. P1 01:15
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  166. P1 01:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Adin Hill
  167. P1 00:54
    Stoppage - Offside
  168. P1 00:40
    SHOT
    Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Bobby McMann
  169. P1 00:38
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  170. P1 00:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pavel Dorofeyev saved by Joseph Woll
  171. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Golden Knights
28Shots on Goal33
62% Faceoff Win % 38%
1/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
6Penalty Infraction Mins2
17Hits18
14 Shots Blocked 15
18Giveaways13
Maple LeafsTOR
Golden KnightsVGK
28Shots on Goal33
62% Faceoff Win % 38%
1/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
6Penalty Infraction Mins2
17Hits18
14 Shots Blocked 15
18Giveaways13

Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights
  • Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
  • Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Golden Knights favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 5.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +118, Golden Knights -130

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 46%
  • Golden Knights: 54%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 46%, while the Golden Knights have a win probability of 54%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Golden Knights are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at T-Mobile Arena on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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