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Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights NHL game on January 15, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
5
6
Jan 16, 2:30AM T-Mobile Arena
Jan 16, 2:30AM T-Mobile Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Golden Knights | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Golden Knights | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
OT1 02:32 Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
OT1 01:53 Shot missed by Mark Stone
P3 19:31 Shot on goal by Mark Stone saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:54 Shot on goal by Jack Eichel saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:42 Shot on goal by Pavel Dorofeyev saved by Joseph Woll
P3 17:14 Auston Matthews shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
P3 17:05 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 15:50 Goal scored by Pavel Dorofeyev assisted by Mitch Marner and Noah Hanifin
P3 14:39 Shea Theodore shot blocked by Max Domi
P3 13:16 Shot on goal by Braeden Bowman saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:24 Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Adin Hill
P3 10:14 Goal scored by Mark Stone
P3 10:09 Shot on goal by Ivan Barbashev saved by Joseph Woll
P3 08:58 Goal scored by Scott Laughton assisted by Matthew Knies and Steven Lorentz
P3 08:04 Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Adin Hill
P3 06:55 Shot missed by Keegan Kolesar
P3 06:34 Shot missed by Keegan Kolesar
P3 06:09 Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
P3 05:48 Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:41 Shot on goal by Reilly Smith saved by Joseph Woll
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
OT
GOALS
ALL
End of 1st OT.
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
SHOT
Shot missed by Mark Stone
John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in neutral zone
Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mark Stone saved by Joseph Woll
Giveaway by Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - Home Timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jack Eichel saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pavel Dorofeyev saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Takeaway by Noah Hanifin in defensive zone
Stoppage
GOAL
Goal scored by Pavel Dorofeyev assisted by Mitch Marner and Noah Hanifin
5-5
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Mitch Marner in neutral zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
SHOT
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Max Domi
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Braeden Bowman saved by Joseph Woll
Ivan Barbashev credited with hit on Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Adin Hill
Giveaway by Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Mark Stone
5-4
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ivan Barbashev saved by Joseph Woll
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
Stoppage - High Stick - TV timeout
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Reilly Smith in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Scott Laughton assisted by Matthew Knies and Steven Lorentz
5-3
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Reilly Smith in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Adin Hill
SHOT
Shot missed by Keegan Kolesar
SHOT
Shot missed by Keegan Kolesar
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Joseph Woll
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Mitch Marner in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Reilly Smith saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Ben Hutton shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
Steven Lorentz credited with hit on Zach Whitecloud in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Easton Cowan
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in neutral zone
Stoppage - High Stick
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Adin Hill
Jack Eichel won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Pavel Dorofeyev assisted by Mitch Marner and Tomas Hertl
4-3
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Mitch Marner
Penalty to Easton Cowan 2 minutes for High Sticking
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
SHOT
Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Troy Stecher
SHOT
Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Jake McCabe
Mitch Marner won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
Giveaway by Easton Cowan in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
John Tavares won faceoff against Reilly Smith in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Braeden Bowman
SHOT
Shot missed by Zach Whitecloud
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mark Stone saved by Joseph Woll
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Shea Theodore saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Cole Reinhardt
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Mitch Marner in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Auston Matthews shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Adin Hill
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Braeden Bowman in neutral zone
SHOT
Ben Hutton shot blocked by Jake McCabe
John Tavares won faceoff against Mitch Marner in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
John Tavares won faceoff against Tanner Laczynski in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Adin Hill
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Adin Hill
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tanner Laczynski in offensive zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
Giveaway by Reilly Smith in offensive zone
Mitch Marner credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in defensive zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Keegan Kolesar assisted by Braeden Bowman and Noah Hanifin
3-2
SHOT
Shot missed by Maple Leafs
SHOT
Shot missed by Tomas Hertl
SHOT
Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Adin Hill
Bobby McMann credited with hit on Jeremy Lauzon in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
Giveaway by Mitch Marner in offensive zone
Power play - Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Golden Knights
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mitch Marner in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
SHOT
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Scott Laughton
Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Ben Hutton shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
Mitch Marner won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jack Eichel saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Max Domi
SHOT
Jeremy Lauzon shot blocked by Max Domi
Jack Eichel won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
SHOT
Shot missed by Mark Stone
SHOT
Shot missed by Jack Eichel
SHOT
Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Philippe Myers
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Adin Hill
SHOT
Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
SHOT
Shot missed by Ivan Barbashev
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Adin Hill
Max Domi won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Reilly Smith saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicolas Roy saved by Adin Hill
Giveaway by Philippe Myers in neutral zone
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Tanner Laczynski in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Auston Matthews
2-1
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
Nicholas Robertson won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Adin Hill
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Adin Hill
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Pavel Dorofeyev assisted by Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel
2-1
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tomas Hertl saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Jack Eichel
Power play - Jack Eichel won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
Jack Eichel won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
Tanner Laczynski won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
GOAL
Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by Matias Maccelli and Brandon Carlo
2-0
John Tavares won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zach Whitecloud saved by Joseph Woll
Giveaway by Mark Stone in neutral zone
Takeaway by Mitch Marner in defensive zone
Tanner Laczynski won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Adin Hill
Giveaway by Scott Laughton in neutral zone
Tanner Laczynski won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Adin Hill
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Bobby McMann
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pavel Dorofeyev saved by Joseph Woll
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 28 | Shots on Goal | 33 | |||
| 62% | Faceoff Win % | 38% | |||
| 1/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/2 | |||
| 6 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 2 | |||
| 17 | Hits | 18 | |||
| 14 | Shots Blocked | 15 | |||
| 18 | Giveaways | 13 |
| |
|---|
| 28 | Shots on Goal | 33 | |||
| 62% | Faceoff Win % | 38% | |||
| 1/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/2 | |||
| 6 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 2 | |||
| 17 | Hits | 18 | |||
| 14 | Shots Blocked | 15 | |||
| 18 | Giveaways | 13 |
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Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights
- Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Golden Knights favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 5.5
- Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +118, Golden Knights -130
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Maple Leafs: 46%
- Golden Knights: 54%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 46%, while the Golden Knights have a win probability of 54%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Golden Knights are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at T-Mobile Arena on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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