Dallas vs. San Jose Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Dallas vs. San Jose MLS match on May 16, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS
Dallas
3
2
May 16, 10:30 PM ET PayPal Park
San Jose
May 16, 10:30 PM ET PayPal Park
San JoseSJ
Score Summary
DallasFCD
B. Leroux (18')
Soccer ball icon
R. Roberts (81')
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P. Delgado (1')
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P. Musa (49')
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S. Sarver (90')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • San Jose
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Dallas
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Yellow Card
N. Norris (FC Dallas) cautioned
90'
Yellow Card
C. Cappis (FC Dallas) cautioned
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for FC Dallas by S. Sarver, assisted by Kaick
3-2
90'
Yellow Card
Daniel (San Jose Earthquakes) cautioned
85'
Yellow Card
B. Kikanovic (San Jose Earthquakes) cautioned
84'
Substitution
Substitution for FC Dallas: S. Sarver replaces J. Valiente
84'
Substitution
Substitution for FC Dallas: S. Ibeagha replaces Ramiro
81'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for San Jose Earthquakes by R. Roberts
2-2
79'
Substitution
Substitution for San Jose Earthquakes: J. Skahan replaces J. Ricketts
79'
Substitution
Substitution for San Jose Earthquakes: P. Marie replaces I. Harkes
70'
Substitution
Substitution for FC Dallas: C. Cappis replaces P. Delgado
70'
Substitution
Substitution for FC Dallas: R. Binyamin replaces S. Moreno
70'
Substitution
Substitution for San Jose Earthquakes: N. Fernandez replaces J. Jasinski
65'
Substitution
Substitution for FC Dallas: L. Farrington replaces P. Musa
61'
Yellow Card
Ramiro (FC Dallas) cautioned
49'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for FC Dallas by P. Musa, assisted by H. Johansson
2-1
48'
Yellow Card
D. Munie (San Jose Earthquakes) cautioned
42'
Penalty missed by B. Leroux for San Jose Earthquakes
18'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for San Jose Earthquakes by B. Leroux
1-1
1'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for FC Dallas by P. Delgado
1-0

Dallas vs. San Jose: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Dallas vs. San Jose
  • Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
  • Time: 10:30 PM ET
  • Venue: PayPal Park

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Dallas +230, San Jose +260, draw +310

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Dallas: 25.9%
  • San Jose: 52.4%
  • Draw: 21.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Dallas 1-1 San Jose (9.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Dallas vs. San Jose? Prediction & correct score

San Jose is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 52.4%.

The most likely correct score is Dallas 1-1 San Jose.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

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