Miami vs. Toronto Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Miami vs. Toronto MLS match on May 9, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS
Miami
4
2
BMO Field
Toronto
BMO Field
TorontoTOR
Score Summary
MiamiMIA
E. Aristizabal (82')
Soccer ball icon
E. Aristizabal (90')
Soccer ball icon
R. de Paul (44')
Soccer ball icon
L. Suarez (56')
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S. Reguilon (73')
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L. Messi (75')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toronto
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Miami
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by E. Aristizabal, assisted by K. Franklin
    4-2
  2. 89'
    Yellow Card
    D. Pinter (Inter Miami) cautioned
  3. 82'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by E. Aristizabal, assisted by D. Salloi
    4-1
  4. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Inter Miami: D. Pinter replaces L. Suarez
  5. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Inter Miami: P. Plambeck replaces T. Segovia
  6. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Inter Miami: D. Ayala replaces Y. Bright
  7. 75'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Inter Miami by L. Messi, assisted by R. de Paul
    4-0
  8. 73'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Inter Miami by S. Reguilon, assisted by L. Messi
    3-0
  9. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: M. Chisholm replaces R. Edwards
  10. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Inter Miami: S. Reguilon replaces N. Allen
  11. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: E. Aristizabal replaces D. Kerr
  12. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: D. Etienne replaces M. Cimermancic
  13. 61'
    Yellow Card
    L. Suarez (Inter Miami) cautioned
  14. 56'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Inter Miami by L. Suarez, assisted by L. Messi
    2-0
  15. 51'
    Yellow Card
    R. Edwards (Toronto FC) cautioned
  16. 44'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Inter Miami by R. de Paul
    1-0

Miami vs. Toronto: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Miami vs. Toronto
  • Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
  • Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Venue: BMO Field

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Miami -150, Toronto +360, draw +375
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-225/+170)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Miami: 50.6%
  • Toronto: 28.1%
  • Draw: 21.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Miami 2-1 Toronto (9.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Miami vs. Toronto? Prediction & correct score

Miami is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 50.6%.

The most likely correct score is Miami 2-1 Toronto.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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