Sporting KC vs. Portland Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Sporting KC vs. Portland MLS match on May 9, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS sport icon
MLS
Sporting KC
0
6
Providence Park
Portland
Providence Park
PortlandPOR
Score Summary
Sporting KCSKC
K. Velde (6')
Soccer ball icon
K. Kelsy (15')
Soccer ball icon
C. Bassett (22')
Soccer ball icon
J. Davis (o.g.) (26')
Soccer ball icon
A. Lassiter (71')
Soccer ball icon
K. Kelsy (74')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Portland
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Sporting KC
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 76'
    Yellow Card
    Capita (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  2. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: S. Afrifa replaces Capita
  3. 74'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Portland Timbers by K. Kelsy
    0-6
  4. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: T. Calheira replaces D. Joveljic
  5. 71'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Portland Timbers by A. Lassiter
    0-5
  6. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Portland Timbers: A. Aravena replaces D. Da Costa
  7. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Portland Timbers: I. Smith replaces J. Fory
  8. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Portland Timbers: J. Ortiz replaces C. Bassett
  9. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Portland Timbers: A. Lassiter replaces Antony
  10. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: Z. Bassong replaces L. Johnsen
  11. 53'
    Yellow Card
    E. Bartlow (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: C. Harris replaces M. Garcia
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: I. James replaces S. Suleymanov
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Portland Timbers: D. Chara replaces J. Caicedo
  15. 45'
    Yellow Card
    J. Reid (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  16. 41'
    Yellow Card
    J. Davis (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  17. 33'
    Yellow Card
    J. Caicedo (Portland Timbers) cautioned
  18. 26'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Portland Timbers by J. Davis (o.g.)
    0-4
  19. 22'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Portland Timbers by C. Bassett
    0-3
  20. 19'
    Yellow Card
    L. Johnsen (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  21. 15'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Portland Timbers by K. Kelsy
    0-2
  22. 6'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Portland Timbers by K. Velde
    0-1

Sporting KC vs. Portland: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Sporting KC vs. Portland
  • Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
  • Time: 10:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Providence Park

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Sporting KC +475, Portland -200, draw +400
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-300/+240)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Sporting KC: 17.7%
  • Portland: 63.6%
  • Draw: 18.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Sporting KC 1-2 Portland (9.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Sporting KC vs. Portland? Prediction & correct score

Portland is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 63.6%.

The most likely correct score is Sporting KC 1-2 Portland.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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