Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara Liga MX match on May 16, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Cruz Azul
2
1
Guadalajara
GuadalajaraGCH
Score Summary
Cruz AzulCRA
O. Govea (8')
Soccer ball icon
J. Marquez (5')
Soccer ball icon
A. Palavecino (66')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Guadalajara
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Cruz Azul
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: A. Morales replaces J. Paradela
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Marquez (Cruz Azul) cautioned
  3. 86'
    Yellow Card
    S. Aguayo (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
  4. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: A. Montano replaces O. Campos
  5. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: J. Orozco replaces A. Palavecino
  6. 81'
    Yellow Card
    O. Campos (Cruz Azul) cautioned
  7. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: G. Fernandez replaces C. Ebere
  8. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: S. Aguayo replaces J. Castillo
  9. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: H. Camberos replaces M. Gomez
  10. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: L. Romero replaces C. Rotondi
  11. 66'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Cruz Azul by A. Palavecino, assisted by C. Rodriguez
    2-1
  12. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: D. Aguirre replaces S. Sandoval
  13. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: Y. Padilla replaces R. Ledezma
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: R. Marin replaces E. Alvarez
  15. 42'
    Yellow Card
    F. Gonzalez (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
  16. 31'
    Yellow Card
    J. Paradela (Cruz Azul) cautioned
  17. 8'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Guadalajara Chivas by O. Govea, assisted by F. Gonzalez
    1-1
  18. 5'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Cruz Azul by J. Marquez
    1-0

Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara
  • Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
  • Time: 9:07 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Cruz Azul +220, Guadalajara +130, draw +240
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-111/-105)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Cruz Azul: 34.1%
  • Guadalajara: 39.5%
  • Draw: 26.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Cruz Azul 1-1 Guadalajara (12.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara? Prediction & correct score

Guadalajara is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 39.5%.

The most likely correct score is Cruz Azul 1-1 Guadalajara.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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